Dave Wasserman gives us his election forecast. Can you decipher this?

Let’s hope Dave Wasserman He’s already asleep today. As a senior editor and election analyst at the Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan publication, and a key figure in NBC News’ decision-making department, he likes to keep things calm before the election.

Wasserman, 40, is known on social media for his catchphrase, “I’ve seen enough,” uttered as he prepares to unofficially call the race. His attention to the demographic details of the country’s various districts and constituencies means he often picks up on trends among the electorate long before anyone else does. In September 2016 this meant sketch potential Donald Trump won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, just less than two months before that result actually materialized.

Preparing for a late night this year, Wasserman says: Vanity Fair that he allows the company to choose the clothes on election night, but Friday appearance on C-SPAN It was the perfect time to announce my latest forecast for Tuesday via tie color.

“It was a pink tie,” he says. “I’ll let viewers draw their own conclusions.”

Pink, as in the “R slope” on CPR maps? Pink as in JD Vancedebate tie? Pink like all the women voting for Kamala Harris? Pink, how completely ineffective?

Vanity Fair: Remember when “I’ve seen enough” became your catchphrase? This really explains how experts use data as it becomes available.

Dave Wasserman: So I meant that literally: I saw enough to conclude that a certain candidate had won. I might use it first for Scott Brown when he won the special election for Ted Kennedy’s open Senate seat, but I’m not entirely sure. It took on a life of its own. When people started asking me, “Well, have you seen enough in this or that race,” I indulged it so much that it became a catchphrase.

My goal was to get rid of the false intrigue on election night. I don’t blame the media for deliberately reporting results on key election days. I work on the decision-making team of a large network, but the reality is that in most cases the outcome of an election is clear based on partial data before each network declares a winner. My goal was to report the result a little earlier and with a high level of confidence.

What is your daily routine on Election Day?

In some ways this is the most disappointing day because we have no new polls to scrutinize. So I try to get as much sleep as possible the night before Election Day. I unplug for at least a few hours a day and hit the treadmill or bike in the hotel gym. I’ve worked in the NBC News decision desk on every major election night since 2008, so I spend a good portion of the day checking our models, looking at data from previous elections to make sure we can respond as quickly as possible when we do. obtaining real data.