KIRSTEN DUK: Why international riders will win the Melbourne Cup

Lake Forest’s dominant Quinella and Lazzarta in Saturday’s $10 million ($1,500 million) Golden Eagle has punters questioning whether it will be déjà vu at the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

For 10 years, the Cup belonged to foreign runners. In 2019, Vow And Declare became the first Australian horse to win since Shocking in 2009.

Last year the Melbourne Cup was won by Without A Fight. Raised and trained in England, Without A Fight originally came to compete in the great 3200m race in 2022. After finishing 13th, he went back to the drawing board to come back bigger and better. Which he did, scoring a Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double.

Incredible considering the last runner to win both of these races was Ethereal in 2001.

Following that proven form on Tuesday, it appears Buckaroo was best positioned for success. He finished runner-up in the Caulfield Cup and was faultless throughout the season, with his most impressive win coming in the Group 1 Underwood just three starts ago.

I remember this gelding arriving from Ireland last September and immediately falling in love with his cool and calm demeanor. Nothing fazed him and I thought he would blow the Aussies’ minds when he took the field in Sydney. Unfortunately, this was not the case. He showed relatively average results. That was until September this year when he won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes at Royal Randwick (1600m). It turns out that all he needs is a little time.

What a fairytale it would be if he could win on Tuesday despite the horribly wide draw.

Fairy tales are not unusual at the Melbourne Cup. In 2015, Michelle Payne’s dreams came true when she became the first female jockey to win the race. This year a record four women are competing.

Holly Doyle, a natural lightweight, flew in from the UK to partner the Harry Eustace-trained Sea King. The gelding has a good interior pattern and arrived from England in flying shape, as evidenced by his stunning Group 3 win in the Bendigo Cup (2400m) less than a week ago.

His travel buddy Onesmoothoperator, nicknamed Smoothie, cannot be discounted. Hailing from North Yorkshire, the gelding also hit the ground running, winning the Geelong Cup (2400m) on October 23 in his first start on Australian soil.

This year’s Cup favorite, Irish stayer Vauban, disappointed in last year’s race, finishing 14th, but has found purple form since returning to Britain.

The moment I thought, “Wow, he’s back” was when I was on track at York Ebor Festival in August.

He was feeling a little hot before entering the starting gate but stormed to the line impressively. Even though he was a little nervous before loading, Vauban’s stablemate still makes him look cool as a cucumber.

The absurd lives up to its name. After winning the 2023 York Ebor, his trainer Willie Mullins stated in a post-race interview that the horse would undergo a full body scan from vets if they did not scan his head. With such a quirky personality, how can you not have a soft spot for this entertaining runner ($11), who finished a respectable 7th in last year’s Cup. I tip the seven year old gelding to salute tomorrow.

There was a lot of pressure on the Japanese at the Golden Eagle on Saturday, but unfortunately it didn’t happen. A more favorable draw at hurdle three on Tuesday could see them win.

Warp Speed ​​was a Group One contender on home soil but seemed a little flat in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 16 lengths behind Duke De Sesse. Considering this was his first pullback in less than six months, I think he can be forgiven. Especially from barrier 16 against the ultra-fit Aussies on soft ground.

Perhaps the second time is the charm for this runner. Having risen to an altitude of over 3,200 meters, he should feel more comfortable, not to mention be on top of the earth again.

I think the fact that four of the top five horses in the stakes are overseas visitors speaks volumes. International players are putting pressure on and will make their presence felt.