Critical factors that could determine the outcome of the US elections

Of course, due to the nature of the Electoral College system in the United States, it is entirely possible, as has happened in a series of recent presidential elections, that one candidate could win the popular vote but still lose the election. For example, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton received 2.8 million more votes than Donald Trump, but still lost the election.

Unsurprisingly, the Trump campaign wasted no time in seizing on Biden’s off-hand remark, despite the White House’s attempt to clarify and deflect attention away from it. However, it appears that Biden’s throwaway statement may have alienated some voters who may still have been wary. Whether this will cause any further damage remains an open question.

In addition to these considerations, the Harris campaign is counting on organized labor vote. Historically, this segment has rallied around Democrats. However, during Trump’s time in office, despite his failure to address union concerns, he has made some incursions into this previously strong Democratic stronghold. For example, the firefighters union did not support either Harris or Trump. Thus, it is possible that some of their members may defect to Trump’s camp.

These restrictions, while attractive to members of the religious right, have caused significant backlash among huge numbers of women voters across the country. Not surprisingly, Democrats in general and the Harris campaign in particular have made this a key issue.

Trump’s inept and contradictory statements on the matter also helped Democrats drive home their message. Moreover, J.D. Vance, his running mate, did not help matters with his confused and disingenuous statements on the matter when asked about his views.

Few presidential elections in decades have been so closely contested. What happens on November 5th will have enormous consequences for both the United States and the world. With millions of people waiting for results in just a few hours, it is too early to say who will win and what factors will lead to their victory.

(Sumit Ganguly is a senior fellow and director of the Huntington Program on US-India Relations at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. These opinions and views expressed are the author’s own. Quint does not approve and is not responsible for them.)