Should the Packers change their kickoff strategy after winning the coin toss?

GREEN BAY, WI— Packers entered last season’s Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit with a 4-6 to 8-2 record. Lions. Before that, Green Bay won the toss six times in 10 games and put the game away each time.

With nothing to lose at this point, and wanting to make a statement on the road against a much stronger team, Green Bay decided to make the decision. On the first play of the game, the defender Jordan Love hit to wide receiver Christian Watson deep up the middle for 53 yards. Love associated with the receiver Jayden Reed four plays later for a touchdown. The Packers went 7-0 and never trailed in a 29-22 upset win.

Likewise, the seventh-seeded Packers decided to receive after winning the toss-up in the wild-card round against the second seed. Cowboys. They then methodically drove a 12-play, 75-yard drive to go up 7–0 and never looked back to pull off a convincing upset victory.

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The Packers embarrassed themselves with self-inflicted mistakes in their loss to the Lions.

However, it is not always possible to take the ball first.

The Packers have won the toss 18 times since Love became the starting quarterback last season. They deferred nine times, including six in a row to start last season, and decided to get the other nine. Of the nine times the Packers went for a touchdown, they scored only twice: against the Lions on Thanksgiving and against the Cowboys in the playoffs.

In these scenarios they bet against Giants (14th week of last season), Vikings (17th week of last season), Eagles (first week of this season) and Jaguars (Week 8 this season), intercepting the ball Texans (Week 7 this season) and kick field goals into the goal. 49ers (Divisional round last season) and the Lions (on Sunday). They haven’t scored a touchdown on the first play the four times they’ve won the toss and picked the reception this season.

Will this change head coach Matt LaFleur’s decision to continue playing?

“Well, maybe,” he said Monday. “It’s quite possible.”

What exactly does LaFleur base his decisions on?

“For me it’s kind of like gut feeling, gut feeling,” he said. “I mean, don’t get me wrong. Sometimes I just ask, “Hey, what’s their record compared to when they got the ball first and where are we at?” So I think every week is a little different… and I would say last year, if you talk about the back half of last season and this year, we were a little more aggressive in that approach to receiving the ball, whereas the previous four and a half We always put it off for years.

“So I think there was something about just getting an advantage. I think playing with an advantage is a shot, it worked out, kind of in terms of losing, we got three points on the board (against the Lions on Sunday). Unfortunately, they were able to respond and score a touchdown. But I would say this: every situation is a little different. You have to consider a lot of different factors from the enemy’s point of view, where do you think you might have an advantage? Of course, I think weather plays a role from time to time, so I think we’ll look at it on a case-by-case basis.”

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— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 4, 2024

The Packers are a team that values ​​process over results. The idea of ​​getting a result after winning the toss against the Lions on Sunday was a smart one, as it planned to make another early statement against Detroit and strike first against the only noticeably better team in the NFC, but the results faltered. We could commend the Packers for their decision to take the ball if they score a touchdown on the opening drive if Love didn’t get a little behind the running back. Chris Brooks under pressure on third down from the Lions’ 12-yard line. And more importantly, unless Brooks makes a very smart pass.

They settled for a field goal, still three points, but not the desired seven points against a high-level team, and here we are. running back Josh Jacobs After the game, he was asked about the mood at halftime after Love’s pick-six put the Packers up 17-3.

“It was a little weird because we didn’t get to go out there and play offense again,” Jacobs said. “The defense was up (because) we got the ball first. It was somehow strange. I think it would have been different if we could have gone back and played again and built up that momentum and something like that. It was a little strange, but we still believed we could win.”

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An error-free day in Green Bay puts the Lions in control of the NFC North

In hindsight, especially considering how the first half started and ended for the Packers, it’s easy to say they should have delayed the start of the game. Considering the sample size of four games this season in which the Packers decided to get but didn’t score a touchdown on the opening drive, perhaps these results will change their process.

But, as with Love’s interception problem, the idea behind the decisions (in this case about receiving) is not necessarily wrong. Instead, the execution leaves much to be desired. It’s possible the Packers will cut both after the bye week.

“I mean, I’m an aggressive guy. I always want to get the ball,” Love said. “I always want to go out there, get the ball, go down and put together the perfect drive and put up seven to start the game. There’s no better way to start a game, so obviously, as you said, we didn’t succeed. That was the goal for us, to start the game fast, go down there and score points, but that didn’t work out, so we’re still looking for that, but I think there’s no better way to start the game. than going down there and scoring a touchdown.”

(Photo by Matt LaFleur: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)