What they say about Michigan – Carswellfamilyfoundation

Election Day is set for Tuesday, and Michiganders are set to elect a new U.S. Senator and help determine who will be the next president. With that in mind, here’s what the Free Press polls, as well as others, tell us about who is expected to win.

In a nutshell, it looks like it’s close.

Our latest poll, released Friday and conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press and its media partners, showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump in Michigan 48–45% due to growing support among black voters and women.

Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, that could mean the race is a dead heat. But it also suggests a swing toward Harris, marking the first time a Democratic candidate in a presidential race has led Trump in Michigan in EPIC-MRA polls since last November.

Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes, which will be awarded to whoever wins the popular vote for president of the state, could be crucial in determining the winner. Michigan is one of a handful of swing states that will determine the race, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Our poll did slightly better for Harris than some others. Websites that average polls suggest Harris is leading anywhere in Michigan. from 1 percentage point To about 2 percentage points.

And the race does look tight in all the swing states. Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be the most favorable for Harris; most others appear more favorable to Trump. Pennsylvania and Nevada look the closest right now. As for what this means, if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she will have the best chance of becoming president; if Trump wins all the other swing states and picks one of these three, he will have the best chance of winning.

Nationally, by the way, Harris is slightly ahead of most averages.

US Senate Race: Elissa Slotkin vs. Mike Rogers

In Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly, led former Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake by 5 percentage points. 47-42% in the latest Free Press poll.

That’s outside the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Slotkin has usually leads most polls in the race for success Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced early last year that she would not seek a fifth six-year term. But the polls are so close that even a minor error in the polls – or a rush of supporters at the voting booth – could either upset or deal a blow to any candidate.

Other pre-election survey information

By the way, the Free Press has reported on many other polling data in the final weeks and months of this election season. Here are some links to these stories:

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This story has been updated to clarify information.