Football forecast between Alabama and LSU: what analysts say

A key SEC football rivalry begins under the lights as No. 14 LSU welcomes No. 11 Alabama as both teams look to avoid a costly loss. Let’s check out the latest game predictions from an analytical model that simulates games.

Alabama moved to 3-2 in SEC play with a win over Missouri, but is still playing by the thinnest of margins as playoff qualifying approaches and can’t afford any mistakes.

Same with LSU, which fell to 3-1 in the conference after losing to Texas A&M two weeks ago and has two losses overall heading into this critical matchup.

Ahead of this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions based on the Football Power Index computer forecasting model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, uses key analytics from both teams, and selects winners based on the predicted scoring differential per game.

So far, the models give the Crimson Tide a big advantage over the Tigers here.

Alabama is the heavy favorite to win the game and takes the lead on the power play. 69.8 percent computer simulation of the match.

That leaves LSU as the projected winner in the remaining 30.2 percent models.

In total, the Crimson Tide took the lead in 13,960 game index predictions, while the Tigers were ahead of Bama in the remaining 6,040 predictions.

But these numbers represent only the dynamics of victories and defeats. How do these models affect the advantage of SEC competitors?

Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field with both teams’ current rosters, according to the latest model projection.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread in this game.

It’s because Alabama 2.5 point favorite vs. LSU, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 58.5 points per game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that set the money line odds for Alabama at -146 and for LSU in +122 win outright.

According to the latest game consensus projections, a slight majority of players currently expect the Crimson Tide to defeat the Tigers.

Alabama is becoming 52 percent bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

Another 48 percent Odds are for LSU to either win the game outright if it loses or keep the score below a field goal if it loses.

Alabama ranks fourth among SEC teams with 55 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Crimson Tide an overall win projection of 9.5 games this season.

For LSU, the index projects Probability 20.4 percent to make the playoffs, good enough to be ranked sixth in the SEC entering this weekend.

And the computers give the Tigers a general prediction for victory 8.4 games in ’24.

College football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

The rankings and point projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games using a combination of key analytics including current results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.

Teams are not ranked by talent, as in other rankings, but by projected point differential against the average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 6:30 pm Central Time.
TV: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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