Analysis: Jakarta will be led by either Ridwan or Pramono, Prabowo is not against it – Academia

Akarta voters will decide their leaders for the next five years during simultaneous regional elections on November 27. The upcoming race will feature an independent challenger known for peddling conspiracies, a former West Java governor backed by a bloated government coalition, and a former minister backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

The PDI-P’s choice for Jakarta governor caused quite a stir as it had previously considered the popular Agnès Baswedan, an opposition figure who lost this year’s presidential election to Prabowo Subianto. The eventual decision to back its own candidate, Pramono Anunga, led analysts to believe that the PDI-P had decided to play it safe, as President Prabowo Subianto predictably retained a number of his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s allies in his administration, including in the Red Army. white office.

Pramono was previously a cabinet secretary in the Jokowi administration and was among hundreds of others who showed up at Prabowo’s South Jakarta residence as the president-elect prepared a list of ministers, deputy ministers and heads of government agencies. While some speculated that Pramono’s visit reflected Prabowo’s support for his candidacy for governor, Pramono brushed off the rumors and said he met with Prabowo for Silaturakhmi (strengthening kinship).

Meanwhile, the broad Indonesia Forward Coalition (KIM), made up of all other major parties except PDI-P, has nominated Golkar Party politician Ridwan Kamil for the post of Jakarta governor. Although Prabowo’s volunteers have rallied around Ridwan and his running mate, Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) chief Suswano, Prabowo himself will not have to throw his weight behind a specific candidate because even if the top post in Jakarta goes to Pramono, he can serve as a strategic bridge to the PDI chairman. P Megawati Sukarnoputri, who has not yet announced the party’s position in relation to the government.

Various sociologists have opposing views on electability. For example, the latest public opinion poll released by the Indonesian Research Institute (LSI) in Jakarta in early October showed Pramono and his running mate, actor-turned-politician Rano Karno, ahead of Ridwan and Suswono in the ratings, the former with a rating of 41.6. percent, and the last one – 37.4 percent. A pair of independent candidates, Dharma Pongrekun and Khun Wardana, on the other hand, trail behind with 6.6 percent.

However, Poltracking Indonesia published a study conducted in a similar time frame, which found that Ridwan and Suswano could potentially win the Jakarta election within a single round of voting, achieving an electability rating of 51.6 percent. Pramono and Rano came in second with 36.4 percent, while Dharma and Kun came in last with 3.9 percent.

Statistically significant differences in the results of the two surveys prompted the ethics board of the Indonesian Polling Association (Persepi), of which both firms are members, to investigate the matter and are currently awaiting clarification from the two surveys. institutions. According to Saiful Mujani, member of the ethics council and founder of the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) survey, if any of the institutions are found to have committed serious ethics violations, they will be sanctioned by expulsion from the association.

Every Thursday

for subscribing to our newsletter!