Rising election stakes

Today we’re talking about a key story of this election cycle: the development of election prediction and betting markets.

For the first time in a century, Americans can legally bet on the outcome of elections using a platform called Kalshi. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that these markets could distort the public’s understanding of our elections if they are treated like polls.

“There are now reports that this is such a delicate election that it could be decided by hundreds of votes. So if you can convince 1,000 people not to vote because there’s a perception that it’s a foregone conclusion, then that could have an impact on winning,” said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy at Better Markets, a financial reform advocacy group.

In this Election Day episode, Dumas explains how Americans are dabbling in betting on elections, the legal issues surrounding these prediction markets, and why he believes manipulating these markets could affect election results.

Then we’ll dive into the history of the “I Voted” sticker and hear the perfect Election Day poem. Additionally, listeners share what moving abroad taught them about the U.S. voting system.

Here’s everything we talked about today:

We want to hear your answer to the question “Make me smart.” Leave us a voicemail at 508-UB-SMART or email us at [email protected].