Which countries and alliances will be affected by the US elections?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently going head to head in the highly anticipated US presidential election, which could see the “first-ever female, South Asian and African American US President”, or first president serve two consecutive terms since 1897.

One of the most decisive factors in the election for voters is foreign policy against the backdrop of major world events, most notably Israel’s ongoing deadly war in the Gaza Strip and expanding aggression in the region. But how will the election results affect some of the world’s biggest issues?

New Arab looks.

Israel-Palestine

Both Democrats and Republicans are pro-Israel. The Harris-Biden Administration provided Israel with with $17.9 billion in military aid. in Israel’s brutal military attack on the Gaza Strip since October 7 last year, which has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians.

Democrats have at times criticized Israeli brutality in Gaza and called for a ceasefire. However, the administration has strongly asserted Israel’s right to self-defense and rejected an arms embargo on the country. Democrats recently said they would limit their military support unless Gaza gets more access to humanitarian aid, but many believe that is unlikely to happen.

Trump, on the other hand, appears to have a slightly more ambiguous stance on Israel and the Palestinian territories. On the one side, he promised to “end the war” in the Gaza Stripbut the biggest donor to his presidential campaign was Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson. During his previous tenure, Trump implemented a number of pro-Israel policies, such as moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords, which saw a number of Arab countries normalize relations with Israel.

The America First president also acknowledged Israel’s illegal annexation of the occupied Golan Heights.

Regardless of who wins, Israel will likely continue to receive financial and diplomatic support from its longtime ally, and the war in Gaza is unlikely to end anytime soon given Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to continue and even expand the conflict.

Russia-Ukraine

Trump also said he would put an end to the “horrible” Russian-led war in Ukraine if he serves a second term as president. However, he never stated how quickly he would take such a step. Critics fear that by “ending the war,” Trump simply wants to allow Putin, with whom he is admittedly close, to win.

“Biden’s weakness led us to the Ukrainian disaster… this invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if I had been in the White House,” he said in April 2022.

He also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for accepting billions of dollars in US aid, calling him “the greatest salesman on earth.”

Democrats, on the other hand, have strongly supported the Ukrainian cause, defending Ukraine’s right to self-determination in the face of Russia’s war against that country.

Biden Administration stressed America’s “commitment to supporting Ukraine in defending its freedom and independence” by providing the European country with hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid.

NATO

Trump, who supports protectionist and isolationist policies, has previously criticized the United States’ funding of Europe’s main security effort and criticized other countries for not spending as much on the military alliance.

Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the EU NATO, and such a step could weaken Washington’s position on the world stage, as well as weaken the US’s European allies in the fight against Russia and China.

“Some of the worst trading countries are allies. Don’t let this word surprise you. They are allies. They are our friends and they are taking terrible advantage of us militarily with NATO and in trade,” he once said.

However, the Biden administration maintains the importance of NATO for US-European relations and views its role in the military alliance as key. Ukraine’s struggle with Russia.

“We must strengthen the alliances that we have, such as NATO, which is the strongest military alliance the world has ever seen. We must support our friend Ukraine, where Russia is trying to change borders by force,” Harris said on television. speech last month.

“As president, I will stand firmly with Ukraine and our NATO allies,” she added.

Iran

As the shadow war between Israel and Iran escalates amid the war in Gaza amid a series of tit-for-tat strikes, Trump said Tel Aviv “must attack” Tehran’s nuclear facilitiessomething that could start a full scale regional war.

During his first term, Trump infamously pulled the US out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, drawing much international criticism. The move further worsened relations between Washington and Tehran, which have been stagnant for more than four decades and are likely to continue to do so.

Efforts to restart talks under Biden’s presidency have failed, although both Republicans and Democrats have said they are willing to resume negotiations. Both sides have also taken a tough stance on Iran, with Harris recently calling Tehran the United States’ “greatest adversary.”

China

Strategists in Beijing said that while they expect more fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Donald Trump, some believe he could be driven by pragmatism and a willingness to reach deals on trade and Taiwan. Trump also has expressed his admiration for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, especially his dictatorial powers. In July, Trump called Xi a “brilliant guy” with an “iron fist.”

Beijing expects Kamala Harris to be predictable and continue US President Joe Biden’s approach to working with allies on China-related issues such as technology curbs, Taiwan and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Analysts say either outcome is unlikely to lead to a major shift, given how entrenched the geopolitical rivalry with Beijing is and how politically toxic even the notion of cooperation with China is on both sides of the aisle in Washington.