East Hampton Cup poll predicts Kamala Harris election in 2024

Every four years, the Monogram Shop in East Hampton sells cups with the names of each party’s presidential candidates. And every year except 2016, the candidate who sold the most won the election.

At the beginning of the summer, wealthy Hampton residents who spent the season in the east bought Donald Trump cups by the boatload. The race wasn’t even close. By July 21, Trump was in the lead President Joe Biden cup sales rose from 2,610 to 847, a seemingly insurmountable lead. Which isn’t exactly shocking. The Hamptons are home or second homes to some of America’s wealthiest people, many of whom may not like Trump but don’t mind having a president who can offer them tax cuts and deregulation, which in this case is certainly Donald Trump. . Many of these people are art collectors—that’s just how things are in the Hamptons!

But then something truly shocking happened. Biden dropped out Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, and the dynamics of cup sales at the Monogram store immediately changed. When I stopped at the unusual shop window in Newtown Lane on Saturday 27 July, owner Val Smith informed me that she ordered 800 Harris cups and sold them immediately. The day before, Harris sold 419 cups versus Trump’s 88. During the final selling period earlier in the day, Harris outscored Trump 126 to two.

“My crystal ball is broken—I don’t know how many of these cups to order,” Smith told me back in July. “The difference is staggering.”

So we thought we’d call Smith in the Hamptons to get the final results and see if the momentum for Harris will last beyond that early honeymoon. And so it was. By Election Day, the store had sold 14,376 of Harris’ cups to Trump’s 8,010, and she noted that Trump had a nearly two-month head start on peak season in the Hamptons, selling 2,554 cups before Harris had even entered the race.

“The initial rush to buy Kamala cups had more to do with general relief than with Kamala herself,” Smith told me on Tuesday. “And then over the course of the summer, her poise and resilience showed that she could definitely stay cool under fire. She deserves the enthusiasm that the cups reflect.”

So the results are consistent with the summer of 2020, when Hampton residents bought 5,207 Biden cups compared to 1,863 Trump cups. But Smith added that the situation has become more severe in the last few days. On Monday, Trump outsold Harris by a few cups, and then on Tuesday, Harris sold 44 cups and Trump sold zero.

And it’s worth noting: Even if he loses the election, Trump will still win Suffolk County, home to East Hampton, by just 232 votes.. Anything can happen, guys.