The 2024 Election: How It Will Impact School Vouchers and the Balance of Power in the Texas Legislature

Texas Republicans reaffirmed their overwhelming control of the statehouse in Tuesday’s elections, but the emergence of new Republican faces in the Texas House could have major implications for the balance of power in the legislature, especially when it comes to the state’s ongoing battle over school vouchers.

The Texas House race has become an unprecedented battleground among Republicans this year after lawmakers shut down the 2023 legislative session — and several special sessions — without passing a voucher-like program for Texas public schools. pay for tuition in private and parochial schools using public funds. one of Gov. Greg Abbott’s top legislative priorities last year. But it was thwarted by 21 of Abbott’s fellow Republicans in the Texas House.

Republicans, who were mostly from the countryside with several private schools, sided with House Democrats and failed the effort. In response to Abbott persecuted dissenting Republicans by supporting a number of voucher opponents in the March primaries.

Abbott’s strategy worked: Of the 15 challengers the governor endorsed, 11 successfully ousted Republican incumbents who voted against vouchers. A few more defeated Republicans in runoff elections in May.

The new class of Republican lawmakers heading to Austin in January could also pose challenges for current House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont). Several Republicans have already said they plan to challenge Phelan for the speaker’s gavel when the Legislature reconvenes in January 2025.

Texas House and the state’s battle over vouchers

Tuesday’s results likely bolstered Gov. Abbott’s confidence that he will have a majority in support of vouchers by the start of the 2025 legislative session.

The 2024 election marked the first time Abbott attacked members of his own party, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.

“The problem with vouchers is these changes,” Rottinghaus said. “Abbott needs a signature question. Every governor does this. He wants the issue of vouchers to be his number one issue.”

Thanks to voucher-friendly Republicans, Texas could be on track to join the 33 other states that already have some kind of voucher program. Most state programs target low-income or special needs students, but states such as Arizona and Florida have recently adopted universal programs available to all students. Abbott especially wants Texas to create education savings accounts, or ESAs, that give parents access to state dollars that can be used to cover education expenses such as tuition and homeschooling.

Texas lawmakers’ failed ESA proposal last year would have provided $10,500 per participating student. However, it is still unclear exactly what type of voucher-like program state lawmakers will propose in 2025, or how expensive and extensive such a program might be.

And despite the ousting of several Republicans who oppose the idea, it remains to be seen how much negotiating pro-voucher lawmakers will have to do if they hope to win over skeptical Texas lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. “The jury is still out on what this is going to look like,” said Jeff Barry, an anti-voucher Republican who won the race for the 29th District south of Houston on Tuesday. “There is a huge demand for versatility now. That’s exactly what I heard.”

Barry defeated pro-Abbott candidate Alex Kamkar in the March primary and then defeated Democrat Adrienne Bell in the general election. (In the election campaign both Barry and Bell said vouchers will divert resources from public schools). He will replace outgoing HD 29 Rep. Ed Thompson, who was among the Texas House members who voted against vouchers in 2023 and decided not to run for re-election.

As for 2025, “I think it will pass because the governor has checked everything to make sure it will pass,” Barry said. “What I need to focus on at this point is trying to get the best opportunity and the best deal for my district.”

What ultimately happens next year could largely be driven by Abbott, who called four special legislative sessions last year to try to push through the ESA. With Tuesday’s results, Abbott “basically achieved his goal,” Rottinghaus said.

“Now the question of whether he can negotiate within the Legislature to get this done will be another test, perhaps the most important test of his leadership to date,” he added.

What Tuesday’s results mean for Speaker Phelan’s political future

The impact of Texas legislative elections isn’t just limited to school vouchers—they may also have determined The fate of Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan.

Phelan was among those who drew the ire of Abbott, who blamed the speaker for failing to pass the ESA in the Texas House last year. The governor, along with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, endorsed Phelan in the Republican primary for House District 21. Phelan was forced to participate in the second round and just won by a small margin.

Since then Phelan openly faced problems to your speaker.

Some of the hostility against Phelan from his fellow Republicans (besides his decision move forward on the impeachment of Paxton) comes from the Speaker’s commitment to the old tradition allowing members of the minority party to chair important legislative committees.

Rep. Tom Oliverson (R-Cypress) among those who challenge Phelan. “The pressure has been building for some time to move away from the way we currently operate,” Oliverson said at the Texas Tribune Festival in September. “Almost everywhere you go, whether it’s a red state or a blue state, a big state or a small state… the majority party controls all the committees.”

To win the gavel again, he will need the support of a new generation of Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives and almost all Democrats in the chamber.