Republicans gain control of Senate, NBC News projects; The house remains on sale

Republicans will gain control of the Senate within the next two years, NBC News predicts, just as Democrats did nervous about Kamala Harris’ prospects for winning the presidency.

Senate Republicans ousted Democrats in red states to gain the majority, flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio, two states that leaned heavily toward the GOP. And they held their ground in friendly states like Texas and Florida, guaranteeing them at least 51 seats when the new Congress is sworn in next January.

The GOP’s success in turning the Senate’s dream map into victories where it matters most will give the party control of legislation and nominations for the next president. NBC News is not yet predicting the winner of the race for the White House or which party will control the House of Representatives.

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Democrats hoped their slate of incumbents and big outside spending by allied groups would help overcome obstacles in these red states. But in the end, political gravity won out.

GOP senators are expected to elect a new leader next week as longtime Republican leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., steps down from the job after a record 18 years. His current deputy, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., and former deputy, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, are vying to fill the post when the new Congress begins.

Every non-incumbent president since 1992 has taken office with his party controlling both houses of Congress. But since the House is still up for grabs, there is there is no guarantee that this will happen this year for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Republicans had an advantage in winning the Senate

Democrats entered Election Day with a 51-49 lead. As expected, Republicans will win the open seat in deep-red West Virginia. NBC News projects Gov. Jim Justice to win election to succeed retiring Democratic senator-turned-independent Joe Manchin.

And in the red state of Ohio, Republican candidate Bernie Moreno defeated Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, NBC News predicts.

The party is also hoping to flip seats to Democrats in the red state of Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester will have to defy political gravity again against GOP challenger Tim Sheehy.

And Democrats are defending five more seats in purple states that are very competitive at the presidential level: Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania; the open seat in Michigan where Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring; Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin; an open seat in Arizona, where Democratic Sen. Krysten Sinema is retiring; and Senator Jacky Rosen in Nevada.

Meanwhile, Democrats’ best hopes of capturing a Republican-held seat have faded in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz won re-election to a third term, NBC News predicts. In Florida, which is trending red, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., also won re-election, defeating former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, NBC News predicts. Some Democrats hoped for a miracle in Florida, but outside groups largely nullified the race.

In deep-red Nebraska, populist independent candidate Dan Osborne competed against little-known Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, but Fischer held on.

Close race for House of Representatives

The race for the House of Representatives is on edge, with redistricting leading to some early seat changes, but no clear trend as to which direction control of the House will move.

Republicans entered Election Day with a 220-212 majority and three vacancies—two in safe blue seats and one in safe red seats. Democrats would need to gain just four seats to gain control of the House of Representatives, along with the speaker’s gavel and the chairmanship of all committees.

The battlefield is narrow. According to the Cook Political Report, the battle is centered on 22 “toss-up” seats – 10 for Democrats and 12 for Republicans. Several dozen more seats are hotly contested but lean toward one party.

Notably, the blue states of New York and California are home to 10 ultra-competitive House districts. Harris is expected to comfortably win these two presidential states, but Republicans are investing heavily in retaining and reapportioning seats in these states.

In New York, Republicans are defending the four seats they won in 2022, giving them a majority in the House. Those seats are held by Reps. Mark Molinaro, Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito and Brandon Williams, all of whom are seeking re-election. Lawler’s race is rated as “lean Republican.” Meanwhile, Rep. Pat Ryan, D-N.Y., faces a strong challenge from Republican Alison Esposito in the Hudson Valley in a race that is being rated as a “lean democracy.”

And in central and southern California, at least five Republican incumbents also face tough re-election bids.

Freshman Rep. John Duarte will face Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th District; Rep. David Valadao will face a rematch against Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District; Rep. Mike Garcia beats off challenge from Democrat George Whitesides in the 27th District; longtime Rep. Ken Calvert is trying to hold off Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st District; and Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran in the 48th District.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, and the man running to replace him, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have spent recent weeks crisscrossing key House battlegrounds as well as scores of swing districts in Pennsylvania. Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and the Pacific Northwest.

As polls opened Tuesday morning, the House Democratic campaign chairman expressed optimism.

“We’re in a very strong position,” Rep. Susan DelBene, D-Washington, told NBC News. “We have excellent candidates. Our message supports the American people on policy issues. We had the resources to get out the vote and connect with voters across the country, all of which put us in a very strong position today to take back the majority, take back the gavels and make Hakeem Jeffries our next Speaker. »

However, she warned that the battle for a majority could be tight and it could take “several days” for all the votes to be counted.

“We may not know today,” DelBene said.

But in a speech to supporters in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, Johnson said he would fly to Mar-a-Lago late Tuesday to be with Trump. It’s a sign that the Speaker and Republicans think they’re having a good election night. Spokesmen for Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, and GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, D-N.Y., said those leaders were also headed to Trump.

“I think that tonight, when they bring it all to the table, I really hope that we will not only have a larger majority in the House of Representatives to make my job easier,” Johnson told the Shreveport crowd, “but we will also take back the Senate and the White House. I think that’s what will happen.”

Full plate

The new Congress will have to work with the new president from the very beginning.

Financial Responsibility Lawthe product of an agreement between President Joe Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, extended the national debt limit until January 2025. bipartisan agreement will likely be required.

The Senate will spend the first part of the New Year confirming the president’s nominees for judicial and cabinet positions, as well as hundreds of other nominees for other political positions.

If Republicans manage to gain full control of the White House and Congress, they will find themselves in the same situation as in 2016, with Trump back at the helm.

In that scenario, Republicans would have to determine how to use budget reconciliation, Johnson’s arcane process that would allow them to speed up legislation without Democratic support: Would they start over with another round of Trump tax cuts? Or will they try again to repeal or renegotiate Obamacare, which they failed to do in 2017?

Johnson, whose political fate is tied to the outcome of the electionsrecently said that Republicans will go big and implement “large-scale reform” Affordable Care Act if his party wins.

“The ACA is so deeply entrenched that we need major reform to make it work, and we have a lot of ideas on how to do that,” Johnson said during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania.

If Democrats manage to capture the White House and Congress, it would be a remarkable coup for a party facing one of the toughest Senate maps in the modern era. That would give Harris’ aggressive economic agenda a fighting chance and put legislation to codify abortion rights at the top of the agenda.