Taiwan can show resolve through major arms deals: experts

• Staff writer, collaborates with agencies

Taiwan could show it is taking U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s demand for “defense” money seriously by pursuing large and early new arms deals to demonstrate it is not looking for a free pass and to demonstrate to Washington its determination to spend on its defense , analysts say. .

Trump, who won a second term as president this week, unnerved Taiwan during the election campaign by saying the country should pay the US for its defense and that it had “stolen” the US’s semiconductor business.

“Watch for Taiwan on the defense side to try to start getting them involved in a big arms package – to do something big, very big,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, which helps broker defense exchanges between Taipei. and Washington.

Photo: Richie B. Tongo, EPA-EFE

This could happen in the first quarter of next year, he added.

“But think of it as a down payment, as an attraction,” he said. “They will assemble several large platforms and purchase large quantities of ammunition.”

The US is already Taiwan’s most important arms supplier, although Taiwan has complained of unfulfilled orders worth about US$20 billion.

A new order for missile systems worth nearly US$2 billion was announced last month.

China could try to test the US during the presidential transition through additional exercises, hacking attacks or other forms of psychological warfare, the Foreign Ministry said in a written report to lawmakers yesterday.

One former U.S. official said he assessed it was “highly likely” that Taiwan would move quickly to secure a major arms deal with the U.S. to woo the Trump administration and counter any lingering inclinations that Taiwan has ripped off the U.S. semiconductors.

“They will want to quickly solidify their allegiance to secure Trump’s interests,” the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity so he could speak freely.

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-long (林佳龍) dodged reporters’ questions yesterday about what US “defense” money might look like, but told lawmakers that defense spending, now about 2.5 percent of GDP, would increase.

“The trend is that it will continue to increase,” he said.

Trump’s remarks about cover fees and Taiwan’s defense budget were likely exaggerated, said Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a fellow at the Institute of National Defense and Security.

The real message of these remarks was that “the United States is willing to support NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries, but expects these countries to invest more resources in their self-defense efforts,” he said.

Regarding arms sales to Taiwan, the new Trump administration could expand arms sales to include advanced weapons such as air defense systems and drones, said Chen Wen-chia (陳文甲), a senior adviser at the National Policy Research Institute.

While the sales could help Taiwan counter the increasingly complex military threat it faces, the US will also require Taiwan to devote a larger share of its budget to defense, he said.

Following the same principle, Su said that during Trump’s previous term, he began selling weapons to Taiwan on a more flexible case-by-case basis while deepening Taiwan-US military exchanges and joint training.

Asked about the prospects for joint military training between the two countries, Chen said Trump has repeatedly stressed that Taiwan is taking steps to defend itself, so U.S. military training assistance will likely become more limited.

Direct training assistance will likely be reduced, but more technical support and equipment will be provided, he added.

The potential impact will depend on the foreign policy and national security officials Trump appoints, said Chen Shih Ming (陳世民), an associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University.

He said members of the traditional establishment within the Republican Party are still internationalists and believe the United States should protect democratic countries.

However, if the Make America Great Again faction takes the lead, key figures such as US Vice President-elect J.D. Vance will prioritize US interests while avoiding dragging the US into costly wars such as the Vietnam War, said Chen Shi Ming.

There are several names vying for top positions in the new US administration who are strong supporters of Taiwan, including former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who called for formal diplomatic relations with Taipei after leaving office, and former US national security adviser Robert O. — Brian, who visited Taiwan last year.

O’Brien on Wednesday thanked President William Lai (賴清德) on X for congratulating Trump.

All potential candidates publicly discussed for Trump’s secretary of state and defense posts are considered “Taiwan-friendly,” said Vincent Chao (趙怡翔), who was a spokesman for Lai’s presidential campaign and regularly visits the United States.

“When it comes to Trump, people say it’s about what he does, not what he says,” the Taipei city councilman said, referring to Trump’s comments about Taiwan during the election campaign. “Taiwanese need not worry. We must have confidence.”