The collapse of the German coalition government opens a new phase of the class struggle

Hours after Donald Trump won the US election, Germany’s Social Democratic Party-led coalition government collapsed. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the liberal Free Democratic Party (SDP) on Wednesday evening. Soon after, with the exception of Transport Minister Volker Wissing, other FDP ministers resigned.

Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Schulz and then Finance Minister Christian Lindner (Photo by Sandro Halanca/Wikimedia Commons/ CC BY-SA 4.0)

There is a strong connection between the US elections and the failure of the coalition. Experts expect Trump’s second term to be marked by new measures in the trade war against Europe and a partial US withdrawal from the war against Russia in Ukraine. They are calling on the German government to support the German economy with billions of dollars in the trade war and significantly increase arms spending in order to continue the war in Ukraine and be able to stand on its own militarily. This requires a massive attack on the working class, which has to bear the costs of trade wars and wars.

In his statement justifying Lindner’s dismissal, Chancellor Scholz cited Trump’s election victory and concluded: “It is clear that Germany will have to live up to its obligations. We need to stick together in Europe more than ever and continue to invest together in our own security and strength. Because the situation is serious. There is a war going on in Europe. Tensions are rising in the Middle East.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) met his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu in Paris on Wednesday to discuss closer European defense cooperation and defense industry integration. The next step will be a meeting of five defense ministers in Berlin, which will include Britain, Poland and Italy.

At the same time, Scholz continued: “Our economy is at a standstill. Our companies need support and they need it now.” It is estimated that a 10% increase in US import tariffs on EU products, which Trump alone is threatening, would burden Germany’s GDP with 127 billion euros. Not a week goes by without thousands of job cuts in the auto, auto, steel, chemical and other industries.

Moritz Schularik, president of the Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW Kiel), spoke in the same spirit as Scholz. “With the election of Donald Trump, the most difficult economic moment in the history of the Federal Republic begins, as we now face massive foreign economic and security policy challenges due to an internal structural crisis for which we are not prepared,” he said. wrote on the website of his institute.

He warned of “protective tariffs and import restrictions that will further constrain economic growth in Germany and Europe” and demanded: “We need to invest massively in defense capabilities in the short term and move forward with France and other willing European partners to build European defense.” “

After Lindner’s ouster, Scholz made harsh accusations against his sacked finance minister. He irresponsibly resisted necessary compromises, “blocked unnecessary legislation” and “employed petty party political tactics.” Instead of “acting seriously and responsibly,” he cares only about “his clientele” and “the short-term survival of his own party.” “Anyone who enters government must act seriously and responsibly and not run for cover when the going gets tough.”

The coalition government has been arguing over the future budget for months. It agreed to support the war and business in Ukraine with billions. But there were disagreements on the issue of financing. Lindner insisted not to take on any additional debt. In early November, he released a document to the media calling for massive cuts to pensions, benefits and environmental regulations to finance rearmament and tax cuts for the rich.

Scholz considers this course too risky. He fears that such an open combination of rearmament, tax breaks for the rich and social cuts will provoke working-class resistance that even the trade unions can no longer suppress. Therefore, he proposes to temporarily suspend the debt brake in order to be able to take out additional loans and thereby gain more room to maneuver in suppressing resistance to his anti-worker and militaristic policies.

“Never, never should we pit internal, external and social security against each other,” he blasted Lindner, who categorically rejects easing the debt brake. Scholz accused Lindner of pushing for “billion-dollar tax cuts for the richest few while cutting pensions for all retirees. … It jeopardizes our cohesion, ultimately even jeopardizes our democracy.”

This, of course, is empty demagoguery. Chancellor Scholz belongs to the party that has led the labor ministries and the most important social ministries since 1998, with just a four-year gap, and is responsible for the largest redistribution of wealth to the rich since the creation of the Federal Republic. The former Workers’ Party today relies on political careerists, government officials, trade union bureaucrats and other members of the wealthy middle class. It is so hated that it only gains 15 percent in the polls and trails the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Like the Democrats in the US, who, with their arrogance towards the falling standard of living of the working masses, their support for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and their policy of deporting refugees, paved the way for the fascist Trump to return to the Whites. The House of Representatives, the SPD, through its policies also strengthens the most right-wing elements.

Scholz worked closely with Lindner as inflation depressed real wages and rents and energy prices soared. Meanwhile, he appointed the former head of Germany’s largest US bank, Goldman Sachs, Jörg Kukis as Lindner’s successor as finance minister. Kukis already worked for Scholz when he was Federal Minister of Finance, and since 2021 has served as State Secretary of the Chancellery.

Scholz also sought help from Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, the former head of the German office of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. He asked Merz to work “constructively” with his minority government “to quickly strengthen our economy and our defense sector” and support them by passing relevant laws.

On January 15, Scholz intends to submit a vote of confidence to the Bundestag. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could then dissolve the Bundestag and call new elections in March, in which current polls show the CDU has the best chance of winning. The far-right AfD, which is feeling stronger thanks to Donald Trump’s electoral success, will also have a good chance of success.

However, the CDU, Christian Social Union, AfD as well as the FDP are insisting that Scholz raise a vote of confidence as early as next week so that federal elections can take place in January. However, their ability to achieve this is limited, since the German Basic Law places strict restrictions on the early dissolution of the Bundestag.

But no matter how the political maneuvers and clashes unfold in the coming weeks, all existing parties are in the process of shifting the axis of official politics far to the right in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. Huge sums are available for rearmament, war and propping up the stock market while resistance to it is crushed. All parties represented in the Bundestag agree with this.

The Socialist Equality Party (AKP) declares war on the all-party coalition. She contrasts this all-party coalition for war and social reduction with the international mobilization of the working class against capitalism and for the reorganization of society on a socialist basis. This is the only way to prevent disaster.