NHC monitors Hurricane Rafael, unrest. See Florida’s influence

After a short overnight run in category 3, Raphael This morning it strengthened into a strong Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph and a meandering path from Florida and the rest of the U.S. through the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to continue to weaken over the next few days, according to the report. Latest news from the National Hurricane Center.

Some models suggest that Raphael might even do small loop in the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, a drop in low pressure near Puerto Rico is bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area, but there is little chance of them developing over the next week.

Rafael flooded western Cuba and knocked out the entire electrical network of the island before entering and re-amplifying. A mid-level ridge is pushing the storm west, further away from the Sunshine State and away from a non-tropical storm over the south-central states that would have pulled it north toward the Gulf Coast, AccuWeather forecasters said.

“As Raphael follows this west-southwest route, it will be subject to increased wind shear (damaging breezes), resulting in a gradual decrease in wind intensity,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Swells generated by Rafael are likely to produce life-threatening surf and strong currents along the Gulf Coast over the next few days.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the development of this system.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

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The next named storm of the season will be Sarah.

Here’s the latest news from the NHC as of 9 a.m. CST on Friday, November 8:

Hurricane Raphael: What you need to know

Special Note for NHC Cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm is likely to extend beyond the cone 33% of the time.

Location: 24.5 north latitude 88.8 W, about 230 miles north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico, about 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph
Real movement: West at 9 mph
Minimum central pressure: 961 MB

At 9 a.m. CST, Hurricane Rafael was centered at latitude 24.5 North and longitude 88.8 West. Raphael is moving west at about 9 miles per hour. Slower west-northwest movement is expected over the next day or so. After that, Rafael will likely wander around the central Gulf of Mexico until early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are around 110 mph with higher gusts. Sustained weakening is expected over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 90 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 in).

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Special note about spaghetti models: The illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models to make its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Florida hit by Hurricane Rafael

Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:

Waves generated by Rafael are expected to spread across much of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. These waves can cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

National Hurricane Center Map: What else is there and how likely is it to intensify?

Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Near the Greater Antilles: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in conjunction with a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeast through Hispaniola and into the southwest Atlantic. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward in the Greater Antilles area.

Regardless of developments, localized heavy rainfall is possible in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Chance of formation in seven days: low, 20 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on the tropical map represent “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

The colors make it clear how likely it is that a system will develop where yellow is low, orange is medium, and red is high.

The National Hurricane Center typically does not issue tropical advisories until after a named storm has occurred, but there is an exception.

“If a system is close to land and has the potential to develop, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not developed into a full storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rome said.

Who is most likely to get hurt?

Hurricane Rafael’s path is expected to be spare the central Gulf region From flooding and damaging winds, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

AccuWeather meteorologists said the system in the southwest Atlantic is very weak but will dump rain on the Leeward Islands and should move west over the weekend before turning away from Florida.

“If the winds don’t change, it could have a way to reach Florida,” AccuWeather said.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

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