How close are Republicans to keeping the House of Representatives? The results show that it is tight

The GOP is on the cusp of retaining its majority in the House of Representatives, which would give the GOP full control of the federal government for the first time since 2017-18.

As of early Friday, Republicans were projected to win 216 seats, just two shy of the 218 needed for a majority, according to Decision Desk HQ and Scripps News. Democrats were projected to win 204 seats.

There are still 15 races to be forecast, with Democrats leading in 10, Republicans leading in three and two with no clear leader.

Republican candidates are currently leading in California’s 41st and 45th House Districts, as well as the overall Alaska district. Assuming the GOP wins these seats and nothing more, the GOP will maintain a majority in the House of Representatives with 219 members.

Several mail-in ballots remain to be counted in the Alaska primary race between Nick Begich and Mary Peltola. Although Begich has a 4 percentage point lead, mail-in voting is expected to favor Peltola. Whether those ballots will be enough to give her the edge remains in question.

Decision Desk HQ gives the GOP a 92.9% chance of keeping the House of Representatives.

Based on current results, Decision Desk HQ believes the GOP will have 222 seats in the next Congress, while Democrats will have 213.

The results of this year’s House elections largely mirror the results of the 2022 elections. The GOP currently holds 220 House seats, Democrats control 212 districts, and there are currently three vacancies.

Such a slim lead proved difficult for Republicans. Having won the majority in 2023, members of Congress needed several rounds of voting before deciding to appoint Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. During the year, several party members rebelled against McCarthy for working with Democrats on the budget bill and forced him to resign as speaker. The party then voted for Mike Johnson as Speaker.