Analysis: Hochul’s $9 congestion fee may deter Trump, but won’t reduce traffic that much

This is a pause that is upsetting.

Gov. Hochul is now trying to save face by continuing to charge cut-rate tolls, which is less beneficial to the city, but she hopes it will be in place before President-elect Trump is sworn in and can fix the situation. on his promise to charge tolls in the CBD.

Hochul intends to submit the $9 maximum toll for approval by the Federal Highway Administration, which previously signed off on the $15 toll plan that Hochul suspended in June, according to officials familiar with the federal-state negotiations. Apparently there was panic. a move to prevent a political backlash ahead of the elections.

Like the suspension of congestion charging itself, Khochul’s proposal to reduce tolls, This was first reported by Politico.despite the governor’s previous support for a $15 toll. her elected Transportation Mobility Review Board and approved by her a few months later carefully selected MTA board.

The peak fare was $9. one of seven toll collection scenarios in an environmental assessment of congestion prices that the federal government adopted in 2022. But this so-called tolling scenario A did not include any benefits for drivers entering the CBD through bridges and tunnels that are already tolled. And it did not include a limit on how many times a day taxis would be charged to enter Manhattan south of 60th Street.

Both of these tweaks were part of the $15 peak toll plan recommended by the Road Mobility Review Board last year and adopted by the MTA: Drivers would get $5 discounts if they use the Queens-Midtown Tunnel, Lincoln Tunnel, Holland Tunnel and Brooklyn Battery Tunnel. ; Low-income drivers will receive a 50 percent discount on peak-hour fares after their 10th trip into the zone per month; and taxi passengers no, drivers will pay $1.25 per ride in a yellow cab or $2.50 per ride in Uber or Lyft.

Hochul’s new plan includes credits, discounts and fees for taxi riders, but it’s unclear how much each would cost.

The new toll structure would also still have to include mitigation measures that the MTA has agreed to implement. for example, dedicating $150 million to various efforts to reduce pollution in the south Bronx and other areas where the MTA forecast predicted an increase in truck traffic as a result of tolls.

The federal government will need to review any new toll structure to ensure it does not create any new impacts. But officials familiar with the process said they believed the review would require less new analysis than a $15 toll and it can be done in a matter of days rather than weeks or months. The toll will also be phased in over time, starting at $9 and eventually rising to $15, sources said.

State law requires the congestion charge to raise $15 billion for the 2020-2024 capital spending plan through bonds. $15 toll gets federal approval even though it will raise about $900 million. per year because the MTA has proven it can still borrow enough toll money to fund $15 billion in capital improvements.

Is $9 Khochula good enough?

According to state lawCongestion charges should raise enough money to
“Fund $15 billion for the MTA Capital Improvement Program 2020-2024.” It was generally assumed that $1 billion in annual toll revenue would generate enough revenue to allow the issuance of $15 billion in bonds for major reconstruction.

Transportation economist and traffic modeler Charles Komanoff crunched the numbers on a $9 peak toll and found it could raise $1 billion a year—though that figure would fall to $950 million if Hochul follows through on his promises to release of municipal employees who are traveling to lower Manhattan. The proposed $9 could generate up to $1.2 billion annually if it includes a new $5 surcharge for rides with Uber and Lyft instead of the previously approved $2.50 surcharge, Komanoff said.

In addition to raising money for transit, advocates say congestion pricing would reduce traffic in the central business district by double-digit percentages, resulting in untold quality of life improvements. FHWA stated that Traffic volumes will drop by 17 percent once all the public transportation improvements provided by congestion pricing take effect.

But Komanoff estimates that a $9 fare would dramatically reduce that improvement inside the Central Business District, with initial travel speeds increasing by only about 6.4 percent and rising to just 12.9 percent once all transit improvements are completed.

“This is what happens when you try to do just the bare minimum—raise $1 billion for the subway,” Komanoff said. “You lose other benefits. Most noticeably, you don’t get the immediate speed boost that a $15 toll would provide.”

It’s unclear whether the lower fees can be implemented immediately or whether it would require additional action by the MTA Board, which signed the agreement. on the governor, want a pause earlier this year. In theory, the Council could vote on the $9 peak rate, as well as other discounts and credits, at its November meeting on Nov. 20.

Overcoming losses before the inauguration of the 47th President is of utmost importance to the MTA. President-elect Trump has vowed to “stop” the fees when he takes office. It’s unclear what he could do if fees begin to increase by the time he is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2025.

“If the state, federal government and city come to a big agreement and the environmental review process is followed, that will leave you with some leverage,” said Justin Balick, a former state transportation official who now serves as director of the state’s Evergreen Action program. “I don’t think there’s a lot of precedent for political hostage-taking and the president being involved in it.”

The MTA desperately needs the $15 billion it expects to raise through congestion pricing for its 2020-2024 capital spending plan. The agency has already suspended work worth $16 billion it was assumed that he would enter into a contract with the money he was preparing to receive from the congestion charge. Eliminating congestion charges from agency financial plans would also help add almost $1 billion to the MTA’s expected shortfall between 2024 and 2027.

It’s also unclear whether advocates would support reducing the death toll. Initial statements following the Politico report focused on the need for congestion pricing at the finish line, rather than on what the price should be.

“It’s more important than ever that we start congestion pricing immediately before Trump can block it,” said state Sen. Andrew Gounardes (D-Brooklyn). “Now is the time to commit to improving public transport, reducing traffic and cleaning our air. Trump has made it clear that he wants to block funding that would better provide New Yorkers with jobs, schools and each other, and protect our climate. Let’s prove we’re serious about investing in the infrastructure that working New Yorkers rely on and turn the cameras on.”