‘We’re balancing on a planetary tightrope’: Cut emissions in half now to avert climate catastrophe, UN warns

Global temperatures will rise 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 unless governments set more ambitious climate goals, a new United Nations (UN) report warns.

Warming at this scale is more than twice the 1.5°C (2.7 F) target set in the 2015 Plan. Paris Agreement – a legally binding agreement about climate change accepted by 196 countries – and will be plunge the world headlong into climate catastrophe.

Current levels of anthropogenic warming are about 1.3 C (2.3 F) above pre-industrial levels, meaning we could reach 1.5°C in less than a decade, according to an annual UN report. Emissions Gap Reportwhich highlights the gap between countries’ commitments and reductions greenhouse gas emissions needed to prevent climate destruction.

“We are balancing on a planetary tightrope,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in his speech after the report was published on October 24. “This report shows that annual greenhouse gas emissions are at a record high, up 1.3% last year. They must fall by 9% each year until 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”

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Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 63 gigatons of “carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent” in 2023, up 0.8 gigatons, or 1.3%, from 2022 levels, according to the report. (A gigaton is equivalent to 10,000 fully loaded US aircraft carriers, according to NASAand CO2 equivalent is a measure that takes into account the potential warming impacts of various greenhouse gases.) These growth rates exceed those observed before COVID-19 pandemic between 2010 and 2019, when growth averaged 0.8% year on year. The new surge in emissions reflects a return to previous levels.pandemic level of activity in the industrial and transport sectors.

Hopes for maintaining the 1.5C target depend on countries collectively cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and then by 57% by 2035, the report said. However, current promises for future action are not strong enough to mitigate the consequences worst effects of climate change.

“There is a direct link between rising emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters,” Guterres said. “All over the world people are paying a terrible price.”

The report’s findings come two weeks ahead of the annual climate summit of the UN Conference of the Parties (COP), which will take place from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Leaders from around the world will gather to build on last year’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuelsand many hope these negotiations will lead to more ambitious climate targets for specific countries.

Emissions Gap Report 2024 – Message from UN Secretary-General António Guterres – YouTube
Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Message from UN Secretary-General António Guterres - YouTube

“If we look at progress towards the 2030 targets, especially the G20 member countries… they have not made much progress towards their current 2030 climate targets,” Anne OhlhoffThis was announced by the chief climate adviser of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the chief scientific editor of the new report. Reuters. (The G20 is a forum of the world’s largest economies.)

The report refers to individual countries’ climate goals as “nationally determined contributions (NDC).” The Paris Agreement requires the NDC to be updated every five years, with the next deadline being February 2025.

“Today’s report shows that available existing technologies can deliver the emissions reductions we need by 2030 and 2035 to reach the 1.5°C limit, but only with increased ambition and support,” Guterres said.

Inger AndersenUN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of UNEP, called on countries to see the upcoming COP29 as an inspiration for bold action. “Every fraction of a degree that is avoided matters,” Andersen told Reuters.