The West does not have a clear strategy regarding the Russian-North Korean alliance

• North Korea fighting on Russia’s side would be a major escalation of the war in Ukraine.
• NATO and Western allies face pressure to respond, but have historically been hesitant.
• Experts have criticized the West’s lack of a decisive strategy to counter the threat.

Western allies have options to respond to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but they are constrained by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider.

On Monday the Pentagon said that 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia for training and are likely to join Russian forces. “over the next few weeks.”

NATO chief Mark Rutte said some troops were already in Kursk. I’m calling the move is a “significant escalation.” He added that this was “another” violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

He said the bloc was “actively consulting” on what to do next. Despite these statements – and a similar chorus of condemnation from Western governments – few commitments were made.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed disappointment Wednesday, saying his allies’ response was “not as loud as it should be” in response to the North Korean threat. The politician reported.

“So far we have heard some reaction, but it is not strong enough,” he added.

The turning point?

In itself, adding 10,000 troops to Russia’s war in Ukraine is not a game changer, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at Britain’s University of Bath, told BI. Troops, many of whom have no experience in actual military situations, can also provide limited assistance.

However, there is reason to believe that these numbers may rise.

North Korea has been steadily expanding cooperation with Russia, reportedly supplying half of all artillery shells used in Ukraine last year.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has the fourth largest standing army in the world, so there is no shortage of troops. It is important to note that experts believe that his regime is receiving economic and technological life line in exchange.

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Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official and fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, described the dangers of the partnership as “a much greater test of the West’s resolve than most people currently realize.”

He added: “There is a reluctance to act.”

At the very least, it means there won’t be any hasty decisions, he said.

Hunter, along with other experts interviewed by BI, described hesitation and fear of escalation among Ukraine’s largest Western partners, which amounts to lack of an overall strategy.

The West has some options – and a history of rejecting them

When it comes to options for the US and Europe, “the tools are the same tools that have always been there,” Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, Bloomberg reported.

This includes one-time relief packages like recently announced by Norway.

It also includes things that have long been ruled out, such as allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russia with Western-supplied missiles.

A bipartisan group in Congress called on Biden to allow Poland to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace. The Hill reports this.. Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg previously ruled out the move, saying it risks “becoming part of the conflict,” the newspaper reported.

South Korea also said it was considering sending military aid directly to Ukraine. This is an unprecedented step that could be very beneficial, but the state is hesitant to take it. experts told BI.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also renewed a proposal made in February by French President Emmanuel Macron not to rule out a deployment NATO troops in Ukrainein a support role.

“We are still lagging behind by responding to escalation instead of reversing it,” Landsbergis wrote on X. “Now we should return to Macron’s ideas.”

This idea has been around before publicly slapped German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Such a move would “free up a lot of resources for Ukraine,” said Anne Marie Daly, geopolitical strategist at RAND.

According to her, this will also be an important signal for Russia: “They do not have dominance on the escalation ladder.”

The Escalation Trap

President Joe Biden’s administration, like much of Western Europe, has largely avoided actions that could be seen as escalating the conflict.

The fact that major escalation now appears possible thanks to North Korea is an indicator of the failure of this policy, Hunter told BI.

The US presidential election and the upcoming change of administration are also putting a damper on any major policy changes in the coming months, he said.

“We live in an era of indecision in the Western world, led by the United States, which continues to fail us and continues to increase the level of danger to the security of the collective West,” he said.

The Biden administration’s challenge is not only to deal with two nuclear powers, but also that North Korea’s belligerence could cause the conflict to spill over into its southern neighbor and damage to relations with China.

Western states were likely quietly hoping that China could intervene diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Hunter said.

At some point, he believes, the West must respond decisively.

Daly told BI: “The problem with the de-escalation strategy is that if that is your stated strategy, you have already conceded every step of the escalation ladder to the enemy.”

According to Bury, the West’s problem is that it can’t even agree on its broader strategy, let alone how to implement it.

“The broader point here is: West, we are not implementing this strategy,” he said. “We’re getting by somehow.”