Will people leave Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests no

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — The news swept through Florida’s Treasure Island almost like a third storm: The mayor planned to leave the barrier island a month after Hurricane Helen flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast, and two weeks later Hurricane Milton also ruined the state.

Mayor Tyler Payne’s home was flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained in a message to Treasure Island residents, and he and his husband could not afford to rebuild it. He also resigned as mayor.

“While it pains me to make this decision in the midst of our recovery from Hurricanes Helen and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family,” Payne, who held the post for more than three years and was the fourth Next Generation Treasure Islander, said Monday.

Up and down Florida Storm-ravaged Gulf CoastResidents make the same calculations about whether they should stay or leave. Can they afford to rebuild? What will the insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida are wondering if coming to Florida is worth the risk. hurricane-prone state.

These existential questions about Florida’s appeal are regularly raised after the state experiences a busy hurricane season, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes crossed the Sunshine State.

If moving to the state offers any answer then hurricanes served little as a deterrent. Florida’s population has grown by one-third to 23 million residents in the two decades since Charlie, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan devastated the state. Last year Florida more than 365,000 residents addedsecond only to Texas among states.

On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s white-hot real estate market has cooled. Sales of single-family homes fell 12% in September compared with the same period the previous year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played a bigger role than recent hurricanes.

“Florida is recovering much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors.

What happens after a storm?

Studies of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have shown that any outward migration tends to be short-lived, and when people do leave, it is usually a short distance move, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with greater financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.

When it comes to the housing market, an initial supply shock can occur as homeowners wait for reimbursement from insurance companies to repair their homes or sell them.

But in the three years after the hurricane, home prices in hurricane-damaged areas of Florida are on average 5% higher than in other parts of the state due to less supply. according to research on the impact of hurricanes on the Florida housing market from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be wealthier than previous ones because wealthier buyers can weather rising prices.

Other factors that determine how quickly communities recover include whether homes are insured, the speed of insurance claims and whether there are enough builders. Because of stricter building codes Implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, new homes withstand hurricanes better than older ones, O’Connor said.

“If a property is damaged and uninsured and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to deal with it,’ there will always be people willing to buy that property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People are building new homes to new codes and regulations, and the impact of hurricanes is decreasing.”

Short term and long term

Recent hurricanes provide examples of what happens to communities in both the short and long term.

In Lee County, where Fort Myers is located, Hurricane Yang made landfall two years ago in one of the fastest growing parts of the United States. Afterwards, population growth slowed to 1.5% from 4.4% before the hurricane. The number of households fell from about 340,000 to about 326,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2019, three-quarters of United Van Lines’ total freight traffic was in Lee County and a quarter was outbound, but in 2023-24 that figure dropped to two-thirds inbound and a third outbound, the company told The Associated Press.

The proportion of people aged 20 to 40 has increased, as has the proportion of men without a spouse or partner, reflecting an influx of construction and restoration workers. The share of the white population has decreased, while the share of the Hispanic community has increased. The percentage of utility and transportation workers in the county has jumped, according to the Census Bureau.

Bay County in the Florida Panhandle where Michael came ashore like the first Category 5 hurricane in the continental United States over a quarter century in 2018 offers a portrait of long-term trends. Four years later, Bay County has recovered its pre-hurricane numbers, which fell nearly 6% in the year after the storm.

Since Michael’s time, the county has become more diverse, affluent and older, with the median age rising from 39.6 to 41.4, and more people identifying as multiracial or Hispanic. The share of households earning $200,000 or more rose from 4.3% before the storm to 8.3% in 2022, a sign that some of the poorest residents cannot afford to rebuild or return.

Mayor of Treasure Island

In his address to voters, Payne said he will remain connected to the Treasure Island community because his parents plan to restore the barrier island, one of a string of beach towns along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. Petersburg known for motels. restaurants and bars along the street. Payne, a lawyer who also runs the family’s eyeglass lens business, said in a post that his decision to move was “difficult.”

“I fully sympathize with the difficult decisions many of our residents are facing,” Payne said.

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Associated Press reporter Curt Anderson in Bellaire Beach, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Follow Mike Schneider on social platform X: @MikeSchneiderAP.

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