Denver vs. Ravens predictions

Broncos (5-3) — Ravens (5-3)

When: Sunday, 11:00 Moscow time

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

Radio/TV: 8:50 a.m., 94.1 FM/CBS

Line: Crows -8.5

Broncos-Ravens Series: Denver is 6-8 in 14 regular-season games dating back to 1996; The Broncos lost 10-9 in their last meeting on Dec. 4, 2022 in Baltimore and have lost three straight to the Ravens.

Spotlight: Vulnerable Ravens pass defense opens up opportunities for Broncos

Browns cornerback Jameis Winston might not have won AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors if Ravens cornerback Kyle Hamilton hadn’t let a game-tying interception slip through his fingers. Or if quarterback Eddie Jackson stopped wide receiver Cedric Tillman from sliding behind him for the game-winning touchdown last week.

The Ravens’ 29-24 loss to Cleveland, a 2-6 team, exposed many of Baltimore’s shortcomings in the passing defense under first-year coordinator Zach Orr. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 291.4 passing yards per game and is tied with Jacksonville for the most passing yards allowed (17).

When the Broncos head to Baltimore on Sunday, the odds are stacked against them. They are 8.5-point underdogs in what head coach Sean Payton called “the toughest game to date.” But if Denver wants to succeed, their best bet is to take advantage of the Ravens’ pass defense.

“I’m looking forward to the challenge because these are the games you go through, the games you play, and they’re extremely (difficult),” Broncos rookie cornerback Bo Nix said. “They are tough now, but when you come out of them you will grow a lot as a player.”

The Ravens’ defense underwent major changes this offseason. Former defensive coordinator Mike McDonald became the Seahawks’ head coach, with Orr, who was previously the inside linebackers coach and spent three seasons in Baltimore, stepping into the role.

Orr inherits talented returning players such as All-Pro cornerback Kyle Hamilton, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, inside linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive end Nnamdi Madubuike, who had 13 sacks in 2023. The Ravens also drafted Clemson standout defensive end Nate Wiggins to help bolster the secondary.

But the Ravens’ talent hasn’t translated into consistent success.

After allowing the fewest yards per pass in 2023 (4.7), the defense has allowed 7 yards per pass this fall, sixth in the league. The Ravens struggle to defend in the intermediate passing game (throws down 10-19 yards). They allowed 102.1 yards on those passing attempts while giving up seven touchdowns on passes of 20-plus yards, according to Next Gen Stats.

Ravens safety Marcus Williams did not live up to expectations and was benched in Week 8. He gave up 10 catches for 211 yards, two touchdowns and a 149.3 passer rating. Smith, being a linebacker, wasn’t very good in coverage either. Opposing quarterbacks completed 24 of 35 attempts for 324 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, with Smith the closest defender in coverage.

Orr told reporters that coverage and hype go hand in hand. It wasn’t a perfect marriage this season.

Even though the Ravens are tied for fifth in sacks with 24, they have trouble putting consistent pressure on the quarterback. Baltimore had the eighth highest pressure at 29.7%. On the other hand, Denver’s offensive line posted the lowest sack percentage (3.6%) and eighth-lowest pressure rate (27.8%) this season.

“Things are not going as well as we would like right now,” Orr told reporters in Baltimore. “We have different things we try to look at to create pressure with the blitzes and the four-man attack.”

Baltimore’s shortcomings could open the door for Nix to improve on his performance against Carolina, when he threw for 284 yards and three touchdowns and won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month honors.

Although the Ravens struggled in passing situations, they were the best defense in the league. That means Denver may have to rely on its passing game to keep up with quarterback Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that has had little trouble scoring points.

Denver has struggled to produce consistently in the passing game. However, last week was a breath of fresh air. As was the case in the team’s Week 3 win at Tampa Bay, when the Knicks started the game with several completions downfield, the Broncos found a way to establish a rhythm early and keep it there until the end.

The Broncos hope they can produce similar performance in the coming weeks, starting with Sunday’s game against Baltimore.

Who has the advantage?

When the Broncos run

Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 17 carries for 44 yards last week against Carolina. It’s hard to expect Williams to perform at his best this weekend. The Ravens have the best defense in the league, allowing 69.9 yards per play and 3.3 yards per attempt. Williams could provide more value in the passing game. Edge: Crows

When the Broncos pass

Nix has never thrown for 300 yards in a game. He might have a chance on Sunday. Baltimore has given up over 300 passing yards in two straight games. If star guard Marlon Humphrey returns from the loss to Cleveland, it could be beneficial for Baltimore’s secondary. Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton looks to have his best performance of the season, gaining 100 yards on eight catches in a win over the Panthers. Edge: Broncos

When the crows run

The Broncos are strong against the run, ranking seventh in yards allowed per game at 106.4. Baltimore will be Denver’s biggest test on defense. Jackson and running back Derrick Henry provided a lethal one-two punch down the backfield. Henry has a league-best 946 yards while Jackson has 501 yards on the ground. Edge: Crows

When the Broncos pass

Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph praised Jackson for his growth as a passer. But against Baltimore’s wide receivers, the Broncos’ secondary, led by quarterback Pat Surtain II, should be able to hold its own. Surtain and nickel cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian dropped passer ratings between 70 when targeted. It will be interesting to see how Denver defends Baltimore’s Mark Andrews and Isaiah Lickley. This is where problems can arise. Edge: Crows

Special teams

Ravens offensive lineman Justin Tucker lost a step. The seven-time Pro Bowler made 76.5% (13 of 17) of his field goals. He is 2 of 5 on attempts over 50 yards and 4 of 5 from 40 to 49 yards. Broncos forward Wil Lutz, on the other hand, was effective. He was 17 of 18 (94.4%) on field goal attempts and 7 of 7 from 40 to 49 yards. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

The Ravens should have a better record than 5-3, as losses to Kansas City, Las Vegas and Cleveland could be avoided. While the Ravens remain an elite offense under coordinator Todd Monken, their defense has had its fair share of problems under Orr. Denver’s defense remained strong under Joseph. Meanwhile, Sean Payton begins to rely on what works best for the Knicks and the offense. Payton coached well the last two games. Now it’s time to see what he can do with this group against a Super Bowl contender. Edge: even

The Tale of the Tape

	Broncos	Crows
General violation	307.3 (25th place)	452.1 (1st)
Hasty attack	121.4 (15th place)	200.0 (1st)
Skip the crime	185.9 (27th place)	252.1 (5th place)
Points per game	21.6 (20th place)	30.3 (2nd)
Full protection	282.6 (3rd place)	361.3 (8th place)
Start protection	106.4 (7th place)	69.9 (1st place)
Pass the defense	176.3 (t-4th)	291.4 (32nd place)
Acceptable points	15.0 (3rd place)	26.1 (26th place)

(Click here to view the chart on mobile.)

By the numbers

8: Passing touchdowns for Broncos QB Bo Nix.

38: Pressure on Broncos Zach Allen.

15: Broncos touchdowns in the red zone.

422: Receiving spots for Ravens WR Rashod Bateman.

946: Yards for Ravens RB Derrick Henry.

Bet on it

Nix has over 33.5 pass attempts.: Knicks rank ninth in attempts (261) and have completed at least 30 passes in a game five times. The Broncos’ model for success is a strong balance between the pass and the run. Denver may not be able to do that against Baltimore. Expect the Knicks to throw the ball quite a bit on Sunday, especially if the Broncos fall behind early.

Franklin has over 20.5 yards receiving.: Franklin had a hard time finding his footing as a rookie. Nix tried to hit his college teammate several times but was unsuccessful, with the ball either slipping out of Franklin’s hands or being kicked slightly. Franklin has the speed to take advantage of the Ravens’ problems in the explosive game. Taking over can be risky. But at the same time, he has a good chance of playing one or two important matches on Sunday.

Publish forecasts

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Ravens 26, Broncos 17

The Broncos have done exactly what they were supposed to do so far and more. They beat bad teams and took advantage of the breaks the schedule afforded them. They also found a way to win three road games. That’s a recipe for a strong start with a dominant defense, terrific special teams and a reasonably efficient offense. However, they will need more in the next three weeks. They can slow down Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and company in a way that many defenses can’t. Can the offense do enough to keep up? This part still seems ambitious.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27, Ravens 24

I may be against everyone else, but who cares? Yes, it will be difficult to contain the Ravens offense for four quarters. But Baltimore’s passing defense has been shaky, which should give the Broncos hope. If Sean Payton follows the same script as the Tampa Bay game and attacks Baltimore’s weak spots from the jump, Denver has a chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Troy Renk, columnist: Ravens 27, Broncos 22

The Broncos played a soft Charmin schedule, which means smart people think they’ll need Kleenex after this game. Denver is a strong underdog facing a Ravens team that is ready to play the bully game. There’s something special about this Denver team. The players have confidence, an advantage. The Broncos won’t flinch, they’ll make Lamar Jackson one-dimensional, but Denver’s inability to make deep shots will prove the difference. Denver will look back on this game as the moment it realized it could compete in the AFC and will parlay it into future wins. But this will not happen on Sunday.