Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction: College Football Picks, Odds

college football The world is in for an exciting matchup on Saturday as No. 3 Penn State takes on No. 4 Ohio State in a Big Ten battle of epic proportions.

Can James Franklin pull off a signature win after years of failure against the best teams in the conference?

Or can the Buckeyes keep their conference title hopes alive with a decisive road win?

Let’s dive into the match and see who has the advantage.

Ohio State vs. Penn State odds

Team	Spreading	Money line	General
Ohio	-3.5 (-105)	-165	Over 46.5 (-110)
Penn State	+3.5 (-115)	+140	Less than 46.5 (-110)

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction

(12:00 pm ET, FOX)

When Ohio State has the ball

Will Howard has been a reliable and steadying presence at quarterback for the Buckeyes, completing 73.9% of his passes and throwing 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

However, his efficiency drops off on the rare occasions he’s been under pressure this season (18.9% of quarterback dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus)—his turnover-worthy completion rate rises to 7.7%. and he ranks 148th out of 155 qualified quarterbacks with a 28.4 PFF passing grade.

The Buckeyes’ offensive line took a turn for the worse after left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury.

Zen Michalski replaced him in the starting lineup last week, but he endured four pressures with 21 pass blocks before suffering his own injury.

It’s unclear who will start at left tackle this week, which will put the offensive line at a disadvantage against Penn State’s brutal pass rush led by Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton.

Ohio State’s performance was also a concern last week against Nebraska.

The Buckeyes averaged a dismal 1.1 yards per contact and posted a 21.7% run success rate, which would have ranked last in the FBS this season, according to Opta Analyst.

TrayVeyon Henderson and Quinshawn Judkins are elite talents.

However, there’s little they can do about an ineffective offensive line against Penn State’s third-ranked defense against the run.

When Penn State has the ball

After leaving last week’s game against Wisconsin with an injury, Drew Allar returned to practice Wednesday and didn’t appear limited.

Franklin will be as honest as possible with his status as the starting quarterback.

However, sophomore Beau Pribula orchestrated the offense flawlessly last week and could offer a different flavor and more mobility than Allar.

Getting the Buckeyes to prepare for both quarterbacks won’t hurt.

More importantly, this week could be the week that Andy Kotelnicki’s script is fully revealed.

The former Kansas offensive coordinator helped Penn State rise from 93rd nationally in yards per game to 10th this year, the most yards per game for the Lions in 30 years.

He is an innovative player who probably has several games specifically designed for this game.

Ohio State’s defense is loaded with star names but has failed repeatedly.

Against Oregon and Nebraska, the Buckeyes posted a 0th percentile defensive run efficiency rate, allowing their running backs to average over 4.5 YPC.

Penn State ranks fifth in the country in scoring, and the duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should make their presence felt.

Ohio State vs. Penn State pick

Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State outright since 2016, and the Buckeyes are 11-1 against the Nittany Lions since 2012.

However, Ryan Day has consistently struggled to prove himself in these big matches.

Since 2018, the Buckeyes are 6-14-1 (30%) against top-ten teams, according to Action Network Research Director Evan Abrams.

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Betting on college football?

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The Nittany Lions are the more consistent team in the trenches right now, and that will be crucial in this high-profile matchup.

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnczyk also brings a degree of chaos to the game, and his Swiss Army knife tight end Tyler Warren could be the biggest X-factor.

While we won’t know Allard’s status until Saturday, I’m still rooting for Penn State in this game with a key 3 interception.

I think the Nittany Lions will win this game outright, but I’ll happily take the points against a Buckeyes team that has shown real warts in recent weeks. I’d also recommend picking up a Penn State Big Ten ticket at +400 or better – they have an inside track to the conference title game with a win this weekend.

Pick: Pennsylvania +3.5 (-115, bet365) | Play up to +3 (-110)

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Why trust New York Post rates

Jacob Wayne bets on college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He increased profits by 84.5 units across two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.