Election analysis: State of the election race in 5 graphs

Social scientists analyze data in a variety of ways to understand how people vote. One way to do this is to use cross-tabulations, or cross-tabulations, which compare the effect of one variable against another. This allows them to identify voting patterns based on demographic variables such as race, age and gender.

Adam Carlson, a former Democratic pollster, compiled cross tabulations from a wide variety of general election pollswhich look at how certain demographic groups plan to vote. A typical general election poll of roughly 1,000 respondents may have only a few hundred—or even just a few dozen—respondents from a narrow slice of the population. But by identifying this small group using cross-tabulations, social scientists can identify trends and patterns among a particular group.

If, for example, you want to know how rural voters are leaning toward an election, looking at any poll will likely give you unreliable information. However, aggregating cross-tabulations of rural voters across multiple surveys could theoretically produce more accurate figures.

Current polls show that most demographic groups are voting the same as in the last election. Overall, women, college-educated voters, people living in urban areas, blacks and Hispanics, and young people tend to favor Democrats, while men, voters without a bachelor’s degree, people living in rural areas , white people and older voters. tend to favor Republicans.

However, many young Latino voters still have an open vote. Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in swing states where many young Latino voters identify as independents, that cohort could still be swayed by either candidate’s message. This is another example of why predicting this election is so difficult.

Survey data shows there have been some changes in how people vote compared to previous elections, including among Black and Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden is estimated to win the black and Latino vote by 83 and 24 points, respectively. Current data shows Kamala Harris will win among these demographic groups by just 65 and 20 points.

There also appears to be a movement among college-educated voters. In 2020, Biden led voters with bachelor’s degrees by 14 points, compared to Harris’ current lead of just 5 points.

If these predictions come to fruition at the polls, they will represent a major overhaul of American politics. But if they’re wrong, it could indicate that this year’s polls are particularly unreliable.