Despite warming temperatures, snowpack in Colorado is above normal early in the season.

Amid warmer than average fall temperatures, snow levels in Colorado are above normal.

Snowpack, also called snow water equivalent, is a measure of how much liquid water is held in the state’s snow fields – a key indicator of drought conditions and seasonal runoff.

As of Friday, Nov. 1, snowpack statewide was 143% of the 30-year median, which is considered historically normal, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.

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However, Colorado has a long way to go before experts know how this season’s snowpack will perform compared to previous years. Snow cover usually begins to accumulate in mid-October and peaks around early April.

“Like in football, we are at the beginning of the first quarter. … We have a long season ahead of us,” said Matthew Alexa, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “But we’re off to a good start.”

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Recent storms have brought cooler weather to the mountain and Western Slope areas, which was about 15 degrees above normal in some places during the first half of October, Alexa said. The bulk of the snowfall was concentrated in the San Juan area. which amounted to 1 to 2 feet fresh powder during the last two storms that struck in late October.

Snowpack levels in river basins in the area are well above 200% of normal, helping boost the state’s overall numbers. However, persistent dry weather has locked down the snowpack in the eastern part of the state.

In the South Platte River basin, which stretches along the Front Range from Fort Collins to Castle Rock, snowpack was 43% of normal as of Friday. In the Arkansas River basin, which covers the south-central part of the state, the rate was 84%.

Still, looking at statewide data, “we’re pretty close to where we should normally be at this time of year, maybe a little higher,” Alexa said.

But the situation can change quickly depending on storm patterns, and even a short period of drier weather can cause snow levels to plummet.

“The benefit of the latest (storm) systems is that they have helped bring temperatures well above normal down to near normal or even slightly below normal,” Alexa said. “Needless to say, late this weekend and early next week it really looks like we’ll see more mountain snow and cooler conditions… (and) these systems that come in will help solidify that cold air and bring temperatures down.”

OpenSnow.com forecasts show a fairly active start to November, with the next storm arriving sometime Sunday afternoon. About 8 inches of snow could fall near and east of the Continental Divide, although areas as far west as Berthoud Pass could also see similar numbers.

In Friday’s blog postOpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote: “The long-term outlook is good news. Some early seasons are warm and have us waiting for winter to arrive, but it looks like we’ll be in for a storm train in the first half of November with several storms each week.”

Climate Prediction Center monthly forecast for November shows equal chances that temperatures and precipitation will be above or below normal in Colorado. The three-month forecast for November, December and January shows mountain areas of Colorado have a slight chance of seeing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

With recent storms hitting the southwest part of the state, the situation could shift toward the central and northern mountains, Alexa said. La Niña conditions continue to develop.

Atmospheric pattern Due to temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Niña is typically characterized by harsher, cooler weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. The 2023-2024 winter season saw the opposite pattern – El Niño, which may have the opposite effect.

None of these patterns have had a historically large impact on Colorado’s snow season, but it’s possible that some effects could emerge later into winter.

“It looks like there’s more snow in the southern mountains now,” Alexa said. “But that could change early in the new year when the northern mountains see more.”