What early voting numbers can tell us about the outcome of the election

How Elections The day is approaching, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots across the country.

As of Friday afternoon, more than 70 million Americans, roughly 44% of the 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day, whether through mail-in voting or early in-person voting, according to the Center for Public Health. University of Florida Elections Lab.

Academic experts, reporters and pundits were reviewing basic and limited data from early voting results, trying to gain insight into next week’s results.

But the picture isn’t entirely black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of MIT’s Election Data Analytics Lab.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “Candidates, the press, etc. are really trying to make conclusions based on the face value of the data, but there’s really little to say about who will win.”

However, Stewart said the early voting data does provide some insight into this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout, indicators that could help explain how the election will turn out.

Changing the method of early voting

Voting trends have shown that more people are choosing to vote before Election Day, and that number has increased over the last 30 years, but Stewart said 2020 was a major outlier.

In the last presidential election, 69% of the 158 million votes were cast before Election Day either by mail, including in-person ballots, or at early voting sites, according to MIT.

About 43% of early votes in 2020 were obtained through mail-in ballots, according to the data.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many voters who were already heavily involved in the voting process and wanted to be safe to opt to use mail-in ballots or shorter voting lines, if available.

“There has been speculation about what will happen to the shift once the pandemic is over,” he said.

However, with early voting this year, the number of voters choosing to vote by mail has dropped, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that interest in voting by mail has shifted to voting in person,” Stewart said.

He noted that the shift is evident in Georgia, which has seen a record number of early votes, with more than 4 million ballots cast as of Saturday. About 92% of those were cast at in-person polling stations and the rest by mail, according to the Center. Georgia Secretary of State Office.

Stewart said some states, including the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, are offering early voting only through an in-person absentee voting option. Under this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, and then place it either in a ballot box or in a designated location, and they are considered a mail-in voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to vote early and will likely vote in person, Stewart said.

“If you need to vote early in person, you need to figure out where that site is, but you have to figure out which one is closest to your home or business. When voting by mail, you will have to make an effort to submit an application and fill it out. go out and return it and hope the mail arrives on time,” he said. “When voting on Election Day, you will likely have a polling place that will be much closer to you.”

Preference for the early voting method isn’t the only thing that’s changed, Stewart said.

The number of partisans gives no indication of the result.

Stewart said historical trends show most early voters made their decisions a long time ago and are likely to be politically active.

He said this year’s data shows that to be the case, but he hasn’t seen major changes in party turnout in several battleground states, according to the University of Florida Elections Lab.

Registered Republicans saw higher early voting turnout in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina this election compared to 2024 as of Friday, the data shows.

Typically, Democrats had an advantage in early voting. But Trump pushed his supporters to vote early, and that seemed to have an impact, Stewart said.

While Republican officials have touted the higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautioned that there is more nuance to the data.

He noted that so far this shows that a large number of registered Republicans who voted early were among people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said that would mean fewer Republican voters would vote on Election Day, and thus their votes might not be recorded until Election Night or even days after.

In 2020, many swing states saw Democratic numbers rise throughout election night and throughout the week, creating a “red mirage” effect on the results.

That mirage and “blue wave” may be muted this time, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, it will probably be less steep,” he said.

What gender and race say about early voting

Democrats are touting the gender gap as a factor in their favor in early voting, with more than 54% of women voting as of Friday, according to the University of Florida.

Stewart said the suggestion doesn’t have merit.

According to t, women have always made up the majority of voters in presidential elections since 1980.Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Stewart said that’s also true for early voters.

“It’s not always obvious to the public that the gender gap has always existed,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to vote by mail than black voters, according to MIT.

Stewart said it comes from a tradition dating back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought, and sometimes died, for the opportunity to march into the voting booth. It was instilled in the community,” he said.

The practice is one factor driving large numbers of Black voters to the polls for in-person early voting in states like Georgia and South Carolina where the option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations associated with the black community are pushing voters to go to the polls early, using campaigns like “Souls to the Polls” so they can avoid any complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia in particular have emphasized the need for early voting to circumvent some of the restrictive voting laws which were introduced after the 2020 elections.

More than 1 million Black voters had cast ballots as of Saturday morning, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

“Mobilization efforts have clearly proven to be effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high turnout

Stewart said the only definitive conclusion that can be drawn from the early voting data is that overall turnout this year will be “on par” with the 2020s, which was the highest percentage voter turnout in more than than 100 years.

“It could be a maximum of 160 (million),” he estimated.

Stewart said early voting trends have shown that voters under 25 have not yet cast a ballot and typically line up on Election Day.

“These populations are really well represented on Election Day,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that once the pandemic ends, a significant portion of 2020 early voters will likely return to voting on Election Day, especially if it turns out to be an easier option given their location and schedule.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the increase in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles, along with the overall trend of the electorate choosing to vote early.

“The data shows an organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”