Latest New York Times Swing State Poll Released: See Results

The final list of surveys from The New York Times and Siena College released a Sunday show that Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have a slight edge in enough states to win Electoral college.

Polls put Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. Former President Donald Trump and Harris were tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump led in Arizona, although all results were within the margin of error. Harris would have had at least 274 electoral votes, which would have been enough to take the White House if these results were realized after Election Day.

The narrow border contrasts sharply with Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll A report released late Saturday showed Harris shares rose 3% in Iowa, a state considered safe for Trump.

The polls were conducted among likely voters between Oct. 24 and Nov. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters in battleground states, with a margin of error of ±3.5% in each state.

Final New York Times and Siena College State Polls

Arizona

Trump led Harris 49% to 45% in the Copper State, according to the Times.

Proposal to secure the right to abortion until fetal viability, 54% of respondents were in favor of this and 39% were against.

In the state Senate raceDemocrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by five points, with polling showing his race at 50%-45%.

According to the poll, Arizona is the only state where Trump leads among people who have already voted. Trump leads among Arizonans, who have already voted 50%-46%.

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Georgia

The Times found Harris leading with 48% to Trump’s 47% in the Peach State.

The candidates were split at 46% when third-party candidates were included.

Three percent of respondents in the state told the Times they made the decision “in the last few days.”

The poll found that 57% of state residents said the federal government’s response to “recent hurricanes“was either fair or bad.

Michigan

In Michigan, the candidates were divided 47 percent, according to the Times. The race remains close, although at 45%, when third party candidates are included.

The poll found the Great Lakes State was one of two states where Trump was projected to exceed his share of the vote in 2020, with Arizona being the other.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican challenger Mike Rogers by a 48-46% margin in the state Senate race.

Nevada

Harris has the biggest lead in Nevada polling, leading Trump 49% to 46%. When third-party candidates are included, the advantage drops to 48–46%.

The proposal to include abortion rights in the Silver State Constitution was supported by 63% of those surveyed.

Both candidates’ favorability ratings in the state were low, with Trump’s approval at -7% and Harris’ approval at -3%.

North Carolina

Harris led Trump in the Times poll in North Carolina, 48% to 46%.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by 17 percentage points in the state’s race for governor. A race overshadowed discovery of Robinson’s story obscene and racist language online is one of the reasons the state is favored by Democrats.

A majority of respondents, 52%, rated the federal government’s response to Hurricane Helen as fair or poor, and 3% said it would have at least some impact on their ability to vote.

Pennsylvania

Trump and Harris are tied in the Keystone State at 48%, according to the poll. That marks a four-point swing toward Trump in the state.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads his race over Republican Dave McCormick by 5 percentage points, down from 9 percentage points in the previous Times poll conducted in September.

The survey found that 55% of respondents were confident they would vote, and 21% had already voted.

Wisconsin

The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 47% in Wisconsin.

The Times found that abortion matters nearly as much to voters in the Badger State as the economy.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a four-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde in the poll.

What to consider when voting

The margin of error measures how accurately we can expect a survey’s results to be representative of the entire population.

According to the theory, when a candidate’s advantage is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie.” Pew Research Center.

Pugh also has found that most pollsters changed their methods after the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, in which Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.