Trump trades take hit as Harris betting odds rise after Iowa election

• Kamala Harris’ rising electoral chances in recent days have weakened Trump’s deal.
• A weekend poll showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa, tilting betting markets in her direction.
• Treasury yields, the US dollar, the Mexican peso, Bitcoin and Trump Media stock are moving.

Unexpected shift in key presidential election over the weekend fluctuating betting odds towards Kamala Harris, taking a jab at the plethora of “Trump deals” that have proliferated in recent weeks.

A survey published over the weekend found Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, conducted by pollster J. Ann Seltzer, is significant because Iowa has long been considered a state Trump would win.

“It’s hard to say they saw this coming,” Seltzer told The Des Moines Register. “She’s clearly taken the lead.”

The poll sent shockwaves through betting markets over the weekend, with Kalshi showing Harris’ odds briefly ahead of Trump, 51% to 49%, for the first time since early October.

As of Monday at 11:35 a.m. ET, odds on the betting site were 55% on Trump and 45% on Harris. At Polymarket, where Trump’s odds were above 60% last week, they fell to 58.1% and Harris’ odds at 42.8%.

Large swings in betting odds have caused ripples to be felt in financial markets ahead of the election.

Here’s how the five parts of Trump’s deal stand.

1. Treasury yields fall

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 12 basis points on Monday, falling to 4.275% after a surprise survey over the weekend.

The rise in Treasury yields after the Fed cut interest rates in September reflected market confidence that a second Trump presidency looks likely and that there will be one. inflationary event due to his promises to impose massive tariffs and mass deportations, which would push up prices and wages respectively.

Investors have been eyeing higher yields in recent weeks, betting Trump’s policies will make it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates further.

2. The US dollar is weakening

The dollar soared in October as Trump’s chances for the presidency grew and markets predicted potential tariffs and higher interest rates will increase the exchange rate compared to competitors.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, jumped about 4% in October.

However, that trade eased on Monday as Harris’ bet odds rose, with the U.S. Dollar Index falling nearly 1% to 103.55.

2. The Mexican peso is rising

The peso has fallen sharply over the past month as Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased.

It is believed that the former president will pursue tough trade policies aimed at Mexico in order to “shift” production from Mexico to the United States, which could harm the peso.

The Mexican peso has lost 3% against the U.S. dollar over the past month, but has recouped most of those losses as polls and the betting market moved toward Harris, gaining 1.5% on Monday.

4. Bitcoin is falling

Bitcoin was one of Trump’s hottest deals this year due to the former president’s enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency market.

Trump gave the keynote speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in July and attended the launch of the cryptocurrency token last month. The Market Viewed Him as a “Crypto President” and Trump’s Potential Victory suggestive forecasts that the price of the token will see a huge increase.

While Harris expressed support for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community, she was not as optimistic as Trump.

With Harris betting odds rising over the weekend, Bitcoin fell about 2% from Friday to $68,350.

5. Trump Media shares are falling

Trump’s biggest deal may have been Trump Media and Technology Groupthe parent company of his social network, Truth Social. Promotions have begun rally in meme style The former president has strengthened his position in betting markets and polls in recent weeks.

Based on the latest Fidelity data for August, the company’s valuation is even eclipsed X Elon Musk.

However, stocks turned sharply as Trump’s chances of winning the election fell. Truth Social shares fell as much as 5% on Monday and are down about 47% since last week.