Week 9 2024 DFS DraftKings Milly Maker. Review

The fast-paced game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than just knowledge of the sport we compete in to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the focus of this week’s article. Game theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and analyze the winner of last week’s largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – Millionaire Maker. The same principles of game theory that can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes taking into account our own skills and knowledge, assumptions about the field based on the combined skills and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself will allow us to further train our minds to move beyond the outdated lineup building methods used by much of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful lists and help us develop repeatable, profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start with a look at last week’s winners list, draw any important lessons for future use, and end with a look at the future main list.

Winning line-up

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Lessons Learned

Almost perfect condition shipped

DraftKings user chindog619 ​​came closer to an optimal lineup than we’ve seen this season, assembling a near-perfect mix of players and salaries to maximize production. Tournaments like Week 9 tend to reinforce bad habits because they skew our perception of what it takes to win these tournaments, particularly by introducing recency bias towards accepting too much variance. This game we play has more to do with how we manage and manipulate variance than it does with selecting nine players who completely maximize points versus payroll. I’ll reiterate what we said earlier in this series: In the 15 years of DFS, there has never been an optimal lineup that wins a single tournament.

Two players featured last week were present to determine the winner

Last week we spent some time in this column highlighting players who were undervalued based on their role and matchup, with Courtland Sutton and De’Von Achane getting the spotlight in that article. If we use the same process to reverse engineer the plays present in chindog619’s list, we see that similar production profiles are present in almost every place on the list. Jackson Smith-Njigba played in a game without DK Metcalf, Mike Gesicki has a deeper DOT and more production than Ja’Marr Chase with Tee Higgins out this season (now a four-game sample), and Quentin Johnston returned to the Active roster the lineup posted two of its highest performance rates in expected games this season. All five of these players were simply rated too low for their expected role and production profile.

Looking to the future

The total number of games has decreased, but prices remain low

Last week we were given a lot of valuable games that were too cheap for the expected role and playing environment, which combined with the increased average number of games created a situation where winning the majors would likely require an increase in points. It happened in the Week 9 main standings, with the season’s highest score leading to Milly Maker scoring 262.10 on DraftKings. However, Week 10 presents a completely different conundrum: prices remain tight, fewer choices are available, and the median number of games is down, likely to aggressively shift the points needed to win tournaments back to 190-195 glasses after a week. Offensive eruption on the 9th. This is an important undertaking because it should fundamentally change the way we approach the inventory. The disclaimer is that value may be discovered throughout the week, similar to what we saw in week 9. slate.

25+ DK points will be hard to find

A byproduct of lower overall plays and fewer offensive environments conducive to fantasy excellence is that it will likely be harder to produce elite fantasy results in Week 10. This increases the importance of players whose performance levels are within their performance range. To simplify things, and based on the setup of some of the games on the list, we can be fairly confident that one of these (or more of these) points comes from the Eagles and 49ers, meaning players with skill in those offenses should gain extra attention on this sheet.

Players are too cheap for expected roles

Jalen Tolbert should serve as the primary receiver for the Cowboys, a team that will be playing without quarterback Dak Prescott and likely without alpha receiver CeeDee Lamb.

Najee Harris has passed for more than 100 yards on the ground in three straight games and has the Chiefs defense allowing the third-most yards before contact per attempt (2.67).

Baker Mayfield returned a 4x salary multiplier to his Week 10 salary on DraftKings in five of nine matchups this season.

Cade Otton recent targets have been 10, 10 and 11 in three games played without Mike Evans. With Chris Godwin finished for the season, Otton is ready to see another elite volume game against the 49ers.

Mason Tipton The last time the Saints played without Chris Olave and Rashid Shahid, they scored a season-high nine goals. Olave was hit hard in the team’s Week 9 loss to the Panthers and is in the league’s concussion protocol after being treated at the hospital.