Latest US elections: Trump storms to victory in US elections; world leaders congratulate him; US Embassy in London attacked

Democrats have a silver lining.

Donald Trump has won everywhere and is set to win the popular vote.

He has had greater success in demographics – expanding his coalition with black voters, Latinos and young voters.

The US has become less racially divided by party.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris trailed Joe Biden almost everywhere as Trump improved his 2020 showing in 2,367 counties.

Its margins declined in only 240 counties.

Why did Trump do so well?

Trump didn’t just win the swing states, and none of them will be that close.

He closed the gap on Harris in a ton of blue states.

She scored anemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Minnesota, while he expanded into red states with big wins in Florida and Iowa.

He flipped Miami-Dade County, winning a heavily Latino district that Hillary Clinton won by 30 points to 10 in 2016.

It hurt Harris’ profits in major urban centers everywhere, including Chicago, New York and Austin.

What did the Democrats do wrong?

Biden stayed too long
The lack of a primary process meant Democrats were denied the opportunity to select someone not affiliated with the Biden-Harris administration, which also denied them the opportunity to properly craft a message.
Afghanistan troop withdrawal (Biden’s polls never recovered)
Spending too much (somewhat) on inflationary stimulus during COVID
Managing Israel’s War in the Gaza Strip
Long-term decline in ethnic minority voters without corresponding improvement in white voters
Trump’s enduring political appeal and Democrats’ confusion about how to fight him.

How serious is this loss?

This is a much more devastating loss for Democrats than in 2016.

They had a lot of things to take comfort in that year – a massive victory in the popular vote, narrow Electoral College defeats in a few places, a strong coalition of ethnic minorities that looked like a solid electoral map for the future.

Roe v. Wade remained intact and the Supreme Court was still balanced.

They don’t have any of this now.

Instead, they are staring down the barrel of a transformed Republican Party and a persistent inability to know how to deal with Trump and magaism.

Politically, they also have nowhere to go.

According to Biden, they governed exactly according to their instincts, and this was categorically rejected by the electorate.

What does this mean for Trump?

This victory strengthens Trump’s position as the key American political figure of this century.

Biden thought he would restore the old order, but Trump made sure it was his last gasp.

The Republican Party is now MAGA forever, and the Democrats will change too – the old liberal order will not return.

Economic policy will be more protectionist across the board, both parties will be more isolationist, politics will be more aggressive, and Democrats will be less likely to elect history-shaping candidates.

Politics in the future will look more like Trump, not least because his movement now has a natural heir and successor in J.D. Vance, the ambitious young vice president.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have no clear leaders at all.