What will a Republican takeover of the Senate mean for Donald Trump?

The morning after Election Day, there is still some uncertainty about party control on Capitol Hill. NBC News reports.there is no doubt which party will control the upper house.

As I write, the new Republican majority in the House will have at least 52 seats. That total could still rise: Senate elections in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona have not yet been called. While Democrats are likely to win some of these five contests, no one in either party would be surprised if the GOP wins more than 52 seats when the new Congress begins in January.

What difference does it make how big the majority is? With 51 Republicans in the Senate, members like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine could, at least in theory, curb some of their party’s most radical instincts. If there are, say, 54 Republicans in the Senate, the far right of the party can do whatever they want.

From a legislative perspective, control of the House of Representatives is obviously of great importance: a Democratic majority would, quite possibly, be able to thwart key elements of Donald Trump’s agenda, but would also be able to at least try to hold the president-elect accountable for expected abuse.

Meanwhile, a Republican majority in the lower house would give the GOP control of all levers of federal power.

Yes, to answer a question some readers are likely asking, the filibuster rule is likely to remain, which in turn would give the Senate Democratic minority some leverage to block legislation backed by the new Trump White House.

But—and you had to know this “but” was coming—much of what Republicans want will not be filibustered. For example, if GOP officials control Capitol Hill, they will approve tax breaks for billionaires through a budget reconciliation process that requires a simple majority in both chambers. The party may well try to gut the Affordable Care Act in the same way.

Equally notable, the filibuster rule no longer applies to the confirmation process, meaning that no matter what happens with control of the House, Republicans will spend at least two years packing the courts with young far-right reactionaries – while early waiting for some Supreme Court. retirement.

As for Trump administration nominees, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida—a former Trump critic turned rather pathetic Trump sycophant—appeared on CNN after the race was called and was asked whether the Senate would be led by the Republican Party, convenient for confirming Robert’s conspiracy theory. F. Kennedy Jr. to an influential federal role.

“Well, I think the Senate will have a lot of respect for a president who just won a stunning, I think overwhelming majority of the Electoral College votes when all is said and done, and the mandate.” Rubio replied. “He has been given a mandate to govern. And I think presidents who have a mandate to govern deserve the opportunity in the Senate to surround themselves with people who will help them implement their policies.”

Leaving aside the obvious fact that Rubio and his fellow Republicans took a completely different view when Barack Obama won by a much larger margin, the Floridian was effectively saying that the GOP-led Senate it would probably be confirm fringe radicals in positions of power, effectively serving as a rubber stamp for Trump’s election.

In July, The Bulwark spoke with a congressional lobbyist who said something that stuck with me for months. “There is a huge difference between 54 and 51 GOP senators,” the lobbyist said. “At 54, Ric Grenell is confirmed as Secretary of State.”

Watch this space.