What does the first College Football Playoff ranking mean for Indiana?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — The early College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season put Indiana in an interesting position as it tries to chart a course for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana is ranked eighth in the 12-team field, but the Hoosiers are essentially ranked ninth because of the way the field is laid out. BYU, the No. 9 ranked team, is the top team in the Big 12, so the Cougars beat out the Hoosiers and four other schools to bid farewell to one of the conference champions.

There are many plot twists you can come up with to try to figure out Indiana’s fate. What if all three of the other conference championship games had setbacks that would likely lead to a bye? Scary “bet theft” scenario? What happens if X challenger loses these two games and Y challenger wins?

You can go crazy trying to chart the different paths that will take the Hoosiers in or out of the College Football Playoff based on what’s happening elsewhere.

So let’s focus on the ones that are directly related to Hoosiers. That in itself is something to think about.

If Indiana wins all remaining games

• The scenario here is simple: Indiana makes the College Football Playoff and gets a bye, finishing as a top-four Big Ten seed.

This scenario assumes finishing the regular season 3-0 and beating Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. By beating Oregon, Indiana could That clinched the top seed in the College Football Playoff as the undefeated team that defeated the No. 1 team in the Big Ten Championship game.

If Indiana goes 3-0 in the regular season but loses the Big Ten title game.

• It will be difficult to keep a 12-1 Indiana team off the field. In this scenario, the Hoosiers would get a quality win on the road at Ohio State on Nov. 23, easing concerns about Indiana’s tough schedule.

Chances are, depending on whether there were “bet stealers” in some of the other conference championship games, Indiana will be on the field, likely still as the host of a first-round game, seeded between the fifth and eighth seeds, because Oregon’s loss doesn’t would be considered destructive. However, Hoosiers have ceded some control over their destiny.

If Indiana loses at Ohio State and doesn’t advance to the Big Ten title.

• It’s entirely possible, but it wouldn’t necessarily be fatal to the Hoosiers’ CFP hopes unless they get beaten so decisively by the Buckeyes that their ranking takes a big hit.

If Indiana had lost to the Buckeyes and there were no surprises in the other league games, they would have found themselves in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Penn State for second place.

In this case, Ohio State will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game because the Buckeyes will beat both the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions.

For Hoosiers, this isn’t such a terrible scenario – with one important caveat. In this case, Indiana would suffer one loss and would not be at risk of losing again in the Big Ten Championship Game. Hoosiers will be vulnerable to ranking elsewhere, but they won’t be able to hurt themselves further. The Hoosiers can move up if the opponents in front of them lose.

However, Indiana would need a high enough ranking after the loss to Ohio State to trigger the above scenario. If the Hoosiers finish in 11th or 12th place, they will be vulnerable to being missed.

If Indiana loses at Ohio State but still advances to the Big Ten title.

• If Indiana loses at Ohio State, the Hoosiers will need some serious help to get to the Big Ten championship game.

A path back to the Big Ten championship game can be forged, but it’s a circuitous path filled with unlikely circumstances.

Ohio State will have to lose one of the following games: Purdue at home, Northwestern or Michigan at home. The Big Game is always full of nasty opportunities, but this is a favorable path for the Buckeyes.

In this scenario, Penn State would be in the tiebreaker with the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers and Nittany Lions don’t play each other and they share a tie loss to common opponent (Ohio State), but Penn State’s stronger Big Ten schedule (next tiebreaker) will give the Nittany Lions the edge over Hoosiers in tiebreaker.

So Indiana will need Penn State to lose one more game. Penn State hosts Washington, plays Purdue in Minnesota and ends with a home game against Maryland. Penn State will be at its most vulnerable against the Golden Gophers – Minnesota has won four in a row – but Penn State will still have the edge.

Oregon could also give the Hoosiers a path by losing two games, although that’s unlikely. The Ducks host Maryland, play at Wisconsin and finish at home against Washington.

Still with us?

If all of this somehow happened and the Hoosiers played in Indianapolis on Dec. 7, it would give Indiana a shot at the Big Ten’s automatic berth. But it also comes with the risk of a second loss and possible playoff elimination if the Hoosiers lose the championship game.

A two-loss Indiana team, even with those losses to Ohio State and likely Oregon, will be hanging in the balance in CFP playoff qualifying. In this scenario, both losses would have to be close for the Hoosiers to give the committee a chance to move on and keep Indiana ranked high enough to become a two-loss team.

If the committee goes in the other direction and penalizes the Hoosiers, the rest of Indiana’s resume likely won’t be strong enough to keep the Hoosiers in the top 12 rankings unless there’s chaos elsewhere among CFP contenders. Indiana will need some real chaos to succeed.

If Indiana loses to Michigan but wins Ohio State

• Michigan will travel to Bloomington on Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff. Indiana holds a three-game lead over the Wolverines in the Big Ten standings. A loss to the Wolverines would likely drop Indiana to the bottom of the playoff seed or out of the CFP top 12 for a week, but a road win at Ohio State could get the Hoosiers back in a week. Timing is everything.

It would also put all of the above scenarios into play when creating the Big Ten Championship Game, but oddly enough, Indiana would be much better prepared to make it to Indy. Why? In this scenario, Indiana would have a tiebreaker advantage over the Buckeyes (head-to-head win) and Nittany Lions (head-to-head win over mutual opponent).

So losing to a worse Michigan team may be better than losing to a much better Ohio State team for the Hoosiers when it comes to getting to the Big Ten championship game. It’s a strange new world.

If that happens, it could be a poisoned chalice for the Hoosiers if they lose in the championship game. A Michigan loss could leave Indiana vulnerable compared to the losses of other CFP contenders. At best, this will likely end any chance Indiana has of hosting a playoff game. At worst, this could eliminate the Hoosiers from CFP contention entirely.

If Indiana loses to Ohio State and Michigan or Purdue

• Indiana’s CFP hopes will almost certainly be realized. Alabama sits on the current field with two losses, but both of the Crimson Tide’s losses were to other playoff teams. That won’t happen for the Hoosiers.

While the noise will be deafening, an Alabama team with three losses and all three playoff qualifier losses will likely be given more weight than Indiana’s two-loss resume with a home loss to a non-playoff opponent . This is where Indiana’s worst Power Four schedule, ranked 103rd, will come back to haunt them.

Of course, a loss to Purdue in the regular-season finale at Memorial Stadium would be the death blow to Indiana’s CFP hopes. Indiana would go bowling instead.

The result? A win over Ohio State would almost certainly put Indiana on track to make the CFP playoffs because it would be one of the best wins any playoff contender could get.