Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction from expert football model

This weekend is set for a stunning matchup as No. 3 Georgia hits the road in another crucial test against No. 16 Ole Miss. Let’s check out the latest game predictions from the expert football analytics model that predicts scores and picks winners.

Georgia is ranked third in the season’s first College Football Playoff rankings and is the presumptive SEC champion, but has little margin for error to remain in the top 12 with another loss.

Ole Miss has less wiggle room as it sits outside the top 12 this weekend, so it will need to play its best football and hope for outside help to make the playoffs.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Bulldogs and Rebels meet in this SEC matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ forecasting model to get an idea of ​​how Georgia and Ole Miss compare in this Week 11 college football matchup.

So far in this SEC clash, the Models have the Rebels beating the Bulldogs at home.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 28-26. and win the game with an advantage expected difference 2.3 points.

The model gives the rebels a narrow 56 percent chance of winning right above the Bulldogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted college football performance metric” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most consistent and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? The SP+ model is currently 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Georgia is 2.5 point favorite vs. Ole Miss, according to updated numbers posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 54.5 points per game (Over -114, Under -106).

And that set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -142 and for Ole Miss +118 win outright.

If you are using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

The latest game consensus projections show a slight majority of bettors favoring the Bulldogs over the Rebels.

Georgia is becoming 55 percent bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

Another 45 percent Betting Draft Ole Miss will either lose the game by less than a ball or win outright with a sweep at home.

Ole Miss ranks sixth in the country in batting average. 23 points better than their opponents this season, and Georgia was 11.7 points better than competitors on average.

But these teams have played closer games over the past three weeks as Ole Miss 13.7 points better than the average opposition and Georgia 13 points better than its competitors over this time horizon.

Georgia has achieved success 10.8 points better playing on the road this season while Ole Miss dominated at home, averaging 24.3 points better than opponents at Oxford.

Ole Miss is strong on defense, ranking third in the FBS in turnovers. 0.192 points per game on average, and Georgia ranks 35th with 0.447 points per game.

Both teams are equal on the other hand as Georgia is in 15th place, missing 0.286 points per game this season, and Ole Miss is ranked 19th with 0.520 points per game offended.

Other analytics models also have the Rebels defeating the Bulldogs in this SEC matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss takes lead on power play. 53.9 percent from the latest computer simulation games.

That leaves Ole Miss as the projected winner in the remaining 46.1 percent Sims.

How does this affect the expected margin of victory in the game? Expect something close.

Ole Miss is projected to be 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field with the current composition of both teams, according to the latest model forecast.

Georgia ranks first among SEC teams with Probability 83.5 percent to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Bulldogs an overall win projection of 10.2 games this season.

Ole Miss is ranked fifth in the conference with 61.1 percent shot qualify for the 12-team playoffs.

And the index predicts the Rebels will win. 9.3 games this season.

When: Saturday, November 9.
Time: 3:30 pm Eastern Time.
TV: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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