College Football Conference Title Game Tiebreakers Heading into Week 11

The expansion of conferences and the elimination of divisional play have made it more difficult than ever to determine which teams will ultimately rise to the top of the top four.

Large-scale restructuring this summer increased the size of conferences to create scenarios in which several teams could emerge atop the standings in December. However, unlike in the past, many of these teams will not play in the regular season, eliminating the head-to-head matchups that have historically been used to determine the top two finishers.

That leaves open the possibility that the race in one or more of those conferences will come down to convoluted tiebreaker procedures.

Take the Big Ten, for example. The first tiebreaker is a personal comparison. The second compares teams’ records to their regular conference opponents. If there is still a tie, the third decider begins with a comparison of the regular opponents against the best conference record among the regular opponents based on their finishing order. The fourth compares teams based on the overall winning percentage of all conference opponents in league play.

Then things get weird. In the event of a tie, the Big Ten race will be determined by a ranking system compiled by SportSource Analytics, which is also the data provider for the College Football Playoff. And if the distinction still fails, the conference will break the tie with a “random tie.” In the Big 12, the final decision will be a coin toss.

Let’s hope the next few weeks bring some clarity to these conferences. Here’s how things stand in the Quartet now:

ACC

Contenders: Miami (5-0), SMU (5-0), Clemson (5-1), Pittsburgh (3-1).

This race could end without any fanfare if Miami and SMU win and finish in November with an unbeaten tie at the top of the ACC standings. In this case, Miami will be virtually guaranteed to win or lose in the playoffs. Clemson and Pittsburgh will meet on November 19, turning this game into a loser elimination game. Neither team is currently considered a legitimate playoff contender.

If Miami, SMU and Clemson tie the game, the Hurricanes and Mustangs will have the advantage because they beat Louisville and Clemson lost to the Cardinals. This fact essentially dooms the Tigers, forcing them to win while one of the two leaders loses twice. The Panthers could run the standings from here, but would still miss the trip to Charlotte with a loss to SMU.

While Louisville has clawed its way into fifth place in the standings, the Cardinals have slim chances thanks to losses to the Hurricanes and Mustangs, both by one possession.

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Big 12

Contenders: Brigham Young (5-0), Iowa State (4-1), Colorado (4-1), Kansas State (4-2), Texas Tech (4-2).

BYU leads the standings by one game and is in great shape to advance to the conference championship. The Cougars hold the tiebreaker with Kansas State and will not face Iowa State or Colorado State.

BYU could even lose once this month and take sole possession of first place if Colorado loses again and the Wildcats beat the Cyclones in the season finale. In this scenario, the Wildcats would face BYU thanks to tiebreakers against Colorado and Iowa State.

If Buffalo and the Cyclones finish November tied for second place at 8-1 in Big 12 play, the Cyclones will have the advantage of having the league’s third tiebreaker. That compares to the common opponent of the two highest-ranked teams in the final standings, Kansas State. In this case, the Wildcats would win against Buffalo and lose to the Cyclones.

Big Ten

Contenders: Oregon (6-0), Indiana (6-0), Ohio State (4-1), Penn State (4-1).

Oregon has breathing room to lose once before the end of this month and still advance to the Big Ten championship game thanks to last month’s win over Ohio State. Not playing in Indiana or Pennsylvania also helps the Ducks. The Buckeyes’ head-to-head advantage against the Nittany Lions makes the Nov. 23 matchup against Indiana a deciding game.

The Nittany Lions will have to hope the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers but lose to Michigan, as that would leave OSU with two losses and PSU and IU tied for second place. In this case, both teams would suffer the same loss to the Buckeyes, and the Big Ten would break the tie by matching each team’s record among all conference opponents.

Penn State’s conference opponents are currently 22-30, while Indiana’s conference opponents are 19-32. That narrow margin will change down the road when the Hoosiers take on Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue. Penn State rounds out Washington, the Boilermakers, Minnesota and Maryland. The Big Ten will look to SportSource rankings if both teams remain tied in this comparison.

SEC

Contenders: Georgia (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Tennessee (4-1), Texas (3-1), LSU (3-1), Vanderbilt (3-2), Mississippi (3-2), Alabama (3-2).

There are eight other teams that will finish the regular season with two losses. However, the picture could become much clearer after Saturday when Alabama faces LSU and Georgia faces Mississippi State. The Bulldogs host Tennessee and Texas A&M next to face Texas. The simplest conclusion would be that Georgia A&M and Texas A&M will win and remain the only one-loss teams in the SEC.

LSU will be in good shape if the Tigers win and Texas beats A&M in the season finale. In a three-way tie between LSU, Georgia and Texas, the Longhorns remain on the sidelines due to the loss to the Bulldogs and the Tigers’ advantage in overall win percentage over conference opponents. The Tigers are currently 23-20 while the Longhorns are 20-25.