Maryland vs Minnesota prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, player news, betting trends and stats

Maryland started 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA before falling 27-24 to Michigan State, where Maryland only had a 10% win expectation. Although they lost 42-28 to undefeated Indiana, the Terps had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, making for a moral victory of sorts. They were surprisingly outplayed by Northwestern, who outscored UM 37-10 before coming back to pick up a 29-28 win over USC. As always, HC Mike Locksley’s offense is a pass-driven group that ranks in the top 10 in both passing rate and completion rate (69.5%). A strong defensive group that ranks 11th in turnover rate supports a reliable run defense that ranks 19th in yards per successful rush and eighth in yards after contact allowed.

Minnesota suffered a tough 19-17 Week 1 loss to North Carolina, where it had an 86% win expectation, then followed up with a pair of shutouts against FCS Rhode Island and Nevada. But they then took a 31-14 blow at the hands of Iowa before traveling to @Michigan where they lost a close 27-24 coin toss. While Minnesota HC PJ Fleck was feeling the pressure of an 0-3 start against their No. 4 ranked opponents, Minnesota prevailed against USC by a stunning score of 27-24, giving us a classic HC Fleck snap session on the referees as the game ended. The Gophers then hopped on a plane to complete their first “SoCal Sweep” and knocked off @UCLA 21-17. UM is 5-2 ATS and is passionate about producing one-score games, which makes for great TV.

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Game Details and How to watch Maryland @ Minnesota live

· Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
· Time: 15:30 EST
· Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium
· City: Minneapolis, Minnesota
· TV/Broadcast: FS1

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Match odds for Maryland and Minnesota

BetMGM’s latest odds as of Thursday night:

• Money line: Minnesota (-185), Maryland (+150)
• Radiate: 4.5 in Minnesota
• Top/Bottom: 46.5 points

This game opened Minnesota at -2.5 but is currently trading at -4 to -4.5 depending on the book. The money line fell to -205 in Minnesota and fell slightly to a market-best -175 with a low of -195. Maryland rose from +170 to a best price of +158 and a low price of +143. The total was set at a perfect 46.5 immediately after the jump and has remained unchanged since Monday.

NBC Sports Betting Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Minnesota just defeated a USC program that was similar to Maryland in terms of scheme and qualifications. Four of Minnesota’s five games have been scored by one score or less, and Maryland has the offensive moves to match that. “I’m confident in Maryland with +4.5 points.”

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BetMGM Heisman odds

Line movement (on, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200
· Camera Ward +20000, +240
· Travis Hunter +3500, +1800

Highest Ticket Percentage
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.2%
· Camera Protection 8.4%

Highest Handle Percentage
· Travis Hunter 31.2%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.3%
· Camera Protection 8.8%

Quarterback matchup for Maryland @ Minnesota

• Minnesota: Brosmer, a graduate transfer from the University of New Hampshire, was heralded as an AP FCS All-American Second Team and Walter Payton Award Finalist last season before heading to Minnesota. He is completing 67.5% of his passing grades, which ranks 13th nationally, with a very respectable PFF passing grade of 77%. Despite having a productive passing attack that ranks 34th in success rate, the Gophers rank 132nd in passing explosiveness and 118th in passing plays of 20-plus yards. However, with only 10.7% of his pass attempts coming downfield, he is not asked to extend the field that often.

• Maryland: Billy Edwards Jr. surpassed NC State transfer MJ Morris for the starting job, posting a PFF offensive grade of 87.2 by completing a commendable 69.5% of his throws for 2,112 passing yards and a 4-for-13 completion percentage. The Power Four ranks as the 13th highest score among signal callers. Edwards gets the ball out of his hands in a quick average time of 2.22 seconds; This is the second fastest exit time in FBS. Similar to his counterpart Brosmer, Edwards leads a fairly conservative passing attack that ranks 122nd in explosive passing rate, but he also ranks 20th in interception rate of 1.4%, which rarely puts his defenses in a bad spot.

Trends and latest statistics for Minnesota and Maryland

• Minnesota allowed three touchdowns on 111 completions; This is the second best completion/TD ratio in the FBS. Texas tops the list by allowing a single touchdown on 121 completions.
• Minnesota targets its runners 8.4 times per game in the passing game, ranking sixth in the FBS. UTEP currently leads the nation in scoring with 10.7 RBs per game.
• Receivers across Maryland were targeted 208 times this year; That ranks fourth among Power Four wideouts. Minnesota has allowed 977 receiving yards so far, second-fewest among Big Ten defenses.
• The Terps’ pass defense took a step back from recent seasons, ranking 111th in 20-plus yard completion rates at 21% and 107th in yards per successful return (16.2 yards).

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