Kamala Harris leads Trump on nearly every key issue among young voters

Kamala Harris takes the lead Donald Trump among young voters on almost every important issue, according to recent polling data provided by Newsweek.

The Independent Center poll, conducted Oct. 18-22 among 1,200 likely voters ages 18 to 44, shows Harris ahead of Trump on seven key issues, including the economy, health care and social issues. The only issue Trump has a lead on is immigration.

Harris’s biggest lead was over Trump in health care, where she leads him by 16 points, 49 percent to his 33 percent. Nineteen percent of voters said they would trust a politician who works with both sides more.

Health care did not figure prominently throughout the campaign. IN Fox News In the poll, conducted Oct. 11-14, only 8 percent of voters, including 8 percent of people under 45, said it was the most important issue when deciding whether to vote.

According to a June 2024 Congressional Budget Office report, the share of the uninsured population will increase over the next decade, largely as a result of the end of Medicaid policies related to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the largest increase among the uninsured population expected to be adults age 19 –44 years old.

However, both campaigns have been vague about their plans for Medicaid, with Harris’ campaign committing to using tax breaks only to lower premiums for plans offered under the Affordable Care Act, while Trump has avoided discussing the law.

Other issues in which Harris performed well were environment, where she leads by 13 points, and education, where she leads by 12 points. On the economy, international issues and political polarization, she leads by 1 to 7 points.

However, while Harris leads only by a small margin on these issues, the polls mark a departure from national polls, which have largely shown voters trusting Trump more on these issues. economic and foreign policy issues. Still, Harris’ lead on the economy is good news for the vice presidential campaign, as polls have shown it to be the most important issue among young voters.

Meanwhile, on social issues including reproductive rights, crime, equality and civil liberties, Harris leads by 12 percentage points, with 47 percent of young voters trusting her more, compared with 35 percent who chose Trump.

Abortion has become a key issue for Democrats in this campaign, especially among women voters. Throughout the campaign, Harris positioned herself as an outspoken advocate for reproductive rights, leading Democratic PartyUS efforts on the issue and the launch of a nationwide campaign for reproductive freedoms earlier this year.

In contrast, Trump has struggled to shake off his association with the repeal. Roe v. Wade By Supreme Court in 2022 after appointing three conservative justices to the court during their terms. He also supported preserving abortion rights to the states and did not say whether he would veto a national abortion ban.

But there is one issue where young voters trust Trump more than Harris, polling shows. On immigration, which was a cornerstone of Trump’s campaign, the former president leads Harris by 1 point: 42 percent to her 41 percent.

Seventeen percent of 18- to 44-year-olds said they would be more trusting of a politician who works on both sides of immigration policy. The poll’s margin of error was 2.8 percentage points.

Other polls have also shown that young people trust Trump more than Harris on immigration issues, but only slightly. For example, the YouGov poll and Economist The survey, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, found the former president had a 1-point lead over Harris on immigration among 18-29-year-olds, but his lead widened to 4 points among 30-44-year-olds.

Trump led Harris by 17 points on immigration among 18- to 44-year-olds, according to a Fox News poll.

Newsweek The Trump and Harris campaigns have been contacted by email for comment.

“Like other Americans, young voters are inundated with ads about the situation at the border, blaming Kamala Harris and the Biden administration for the record number of illegal crossings, and also, frankly, for demagoguing the issue in her speeches, saying that Harris is to blame for crimes committed by undocumented immigrants, and, of course, saying hateful things about immigrants in the country who are here. legally,” Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Institute for Public Religion Research and author of the book The Politics of Generation Z: How Our Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracysaid Newsweek.

“Some data also shows that the Trump campaign is running a lot of these ads on places like YouTube, where younger voters, especially young men, are more likely to follow them.

Both candidates have sought to appeal to younger voters throughout this election through alternative media channels such as podcasts which are published on YouTube. Trump appeared on Joe Rogan Experience, Shawn Ryan Shawand Theo Von and Lex Friedman’s podcast. All four podcasts attract a largely young male audience, a demographic Trump is leaning on to drum up support.

“The big gap in this cycle is less age and more gender. There is no doubt that young men are becoming more conservative; this has been going on for a while,” Tory Gavito, president of Way to Win, a progressive voting organization. , said Newsweek.

One of Trump’s key promises if re-elected is to carry out the largest domestic deportation in US history. He made similar promises when he first ran for president in 2016, but the number of deportations never exceeded 350,000 during his administration. By comparison, then-President Barack Obama carried out 432,000 deportations in 2013, the highest annual figure since records were kept.

Trump also said he would use the National Guard to detain migrants and said he would invoke the Enemy Alien Act, a 1798 law that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country with which the United States is at war.

“Because the border has become a defining issue for the MAGA movement, it is likely to be more significant for young people who are converting to MAGA,” Gavito said.

But in reality, Gavito says, Trump’s mass deportation scheme and his demonization of migrants may not actually appeal to young voters as much as polls lead us to believe, and that’s something he says the Harris campaign needs to acknowledge in order to win. in November.

“First, she needs to clearly articulate how she will fix our broken immigration system,” Gavito said of Harris. “This poll among young people overall is higher than Trump’s demonization of immigrants and his saber-rattling at the border.

“We have to tell the story of what mass deportation actually entails, we’ve done a lot of original research on this. Most people have no idea what mass deportation is, but when they learn the details, they will clearly understand why Trump is doing it. this encourages them to support Kamala,” he added.

But Deckman believes it is the economy, not immigration, that matters most to young people. “Young voters’ biggest concern is not immigration, but the economy,” she said. According to a Fox News poll, 44 percent of young people under 45 said the economy is the most important issue to them.

Meanwhile, surveys have shown that immigration is not a particularly pressing issue for people under 45. YouGov/Economist The survey found that immigration is the most important issue for 5 percent of young people aged 18–29 and 8 percent of young people aged 30–44. A Fox News poll found that immigration is the most important issue for only 12 percent of young people under 45.

However, Deckman noted a gender gap when it comes to young voters, adding that while the economy may be the most important issue for young men, there is another issue that concerns young women more.

“Young women certainly care about the economy, but they are more motivated to vote because of abortion rights and other social issues,” she said.

Earlier this month, Harris appeared on the popular channel Call her dad podcast for discussion discussed current state of abortion access in America. About 90 percent of the show’s listeners are women, according to Facts.net.

“One in three women in our country lives in states where abortion is illegal,” she said, and described the challenges faced by women in those states, especially mothers.

Harris added: “Imagine she’s in a state where abortion is illegal and she’s a mom. So she’s going to have to figure it out, God help her if she has affordable child care, God help her if she has paid leave, and then she has to go to the airport, stand in a TSA line, sit on a plane next to absolutely a stranger, to go to a city where she has never been to get the help she needs.”

However, Harris’ comments didn’t quite sit well. Podcast host Alex Cooper lost thousands of subscribers after the interview, when some listeners accused Cooper of promoting propaganda for Democratic PartyAnd Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey takes place after the podcast finding that 51 percent of independent independent experts surveyed noted Harris’ appearance on Call her dadlike her other media appearances, it hurt her.

Opinion polls suggest that abortion may not be the issue that will help young voters win this election. An October Fox News poll found that abortion was the most important issue for only 13 percent of people under the age of 45, while a Harris X poll conducted from October 9 to 11 found that abortion was the most important issue for 22 percent of people aged from 18 to 34 years old. summers and 15 percent of 35-49 year olds.

Still, Gavito said the election is so close that ultimately it will depend on how motivated young people are to vote on the issues they care about most.

“The big question here is who will vote in 2024: young women or young men. In 2022, women were incredibly motivated to vote on reproductive issues,” Gavito said.

“It remains to be seen whether young people who are more aligned with the MAGA worldview will perform at the same or higher levels across the border region than young women driven to the polls by reproductive rights.”

“Young people always come out and vote, they did so in record numbers in 2020. They will probably come again this year. The real issue is the gender gap, it’s unclear how exactly they will overcome it. That could very well decide this election. “, he added.