Who will win the US elections? What the weather forecasters say

With Election Day less than a week away and early voting already in full swing, most polls show the 2024 presidential race as close as it can get.

vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump Currently, in vital swing states, a razor-thin difference separates them. National polls indicate that the race is very difficult.

But some experts are more confident about the result than others. Here are five prominent election forecasters and their views on who will win the 2024 presidential election.

Allan Lichtman

Historian Allan Lichtman uses a system of 13 true/false statements to determine who he thinks will win the presidency.

Known as the Keys to the White House, the model assesses the standing of the ruling party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, domestic policy and foreign policy.

If there are six or more false results, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or less are false, he is expected to win.

In September Lichtman formally predicted Harris would win elections 2024.

Talking to NewsweekAn American University professor said foreign policy is the most difficult area to evaluate due to ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“You’re dealing with two wars – two uncertain and very volatile wars – which makes these two keys extremely difficult to understand,” he said.

Nate Silver

Statistician, writer and poker player Nate Silver wrote in an article dated October 23rd for New York Times that his “gut tells me Donald Trump” will win.

However, Silver stressed that his official forecasting model, based on polling data, suggests the race is essentially a toss-up.

“I don’t think you should give any weight to anyone’s instincts, including mine. Instead, you should accept the fact that a 50-50 forecast really means 50-50,” wrote Silver, who founded and formerly edited the election analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

Christophe Barrault

French economist Christophe Barrault is called the most accurate economist in the world.

Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities Monaco, Bloomberg has named him the top U.S. forecaster every year except once since 2012.

Barro said his model, based largely on economic and financial data, suggests the most likely outcome of the election would be a Trump victory. republican revenge. He expects the GOP to win Senatebut the House of Representatives can go either way.

Thomas Miller

Thomas Miller is a data scientist at Northwestern University who uses betting markets to make his forecasts rather than traditional polls, which he says don’t accurately reflect changing voter sentiment.

“I don’t rely on polls. I rely on the prediction markets,” Miller previously said. Newsweek. “The political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen in an election. People invest their money, which means they believe something will happen in the future.”

Miller, who accurately forecasts the 2020 presidential election, also takes into account historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls “fundamentals,” a common practice for election modelers.

In September his model pointed to Harris’ landslide victory but just recently biased in favor of Trumpprojecting a possible 345 Electoral College votes for the Republican.

Larry Sabato

Larry Sabato is an American political scientist, analyst, and editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political website that predicts and tracks numerous political races, including for the presidency.

The site’s rankings take into account election history, polling, candidate quality, modeling and reporting.

As of this writing, Sabato’s 2024 Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings did not point to a clear winner.

He projects 226 votes for Harris and 219 for Trump, with 93 votes considered a toss-up. 270 Electoral College votes are needed to secure the White House.

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