The fight for control of the Senate comes to a head as spending hits records.

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, Rocky Mountains and American Southwest as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extremists in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.

Just three races—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana—are projected to spend more than $1 billion by Nov. 5.

Race in Ohio could break the Senate race spending record. Race in Montana will be the most expensive Senate race ever by vote count. And at the end of the game, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a GOP stronghold where the party has new hopes of unseating a staunchly conservative two-term senator. Ted Cruza disorder that could help them protect their majority.

Republicans need to win two seats to secure a majority, and one of them is West Virginia – it’s all in the bag for the Republican Party.

Other races are more changeable and less predictable.

For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses of established leaders could lead to the disappearance of Democrats who reliably represent Republican states.

The election will also test the strength of both parties at the polls. Wisconsin, Michigan And Pennsylvaniamajor presidential battleground states known as the “Blue Wall” because of their relatively reliable history of voting for Democrats. A Republican victory there would dramatically change the Senate playing field.

Overall, more than $2.5 billion will be spent on ads during the Senate race this two-year campaign cycle, up slightly from 2022, according to political ad tracking firm AdImpact.

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million, or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was for Democrats. Jon Ossoff victory in Georgia Competition who advanced to a runoff in 2021 to decide control of the Senate, according to the campaign finance tracker. Open secrets.

Overall, campaign strategists say the Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is ahead of his party’s Senate candidates in battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states are ahead of their presidential candidates, Kamala Harris.

That means there is a portion of voters who might vote for Trump but not support Republicans in Senate races, or who might split their tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.

Such splits were rare. Maine Voters Supported Democrat in 2020 Joe Biden for President and re-elected as a Republican Senator. Susan CollinsFor example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to run through Election Day in the seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show a close race but also Nevada And Arizonawhere Republicans are encouraged by high early voting rates.

Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republicans Tim Sheehy challenges third-term Democratic senator. Jon Tester. They’re also optimistic about reliably red Ohio, where Republicans Bernie Moreno challenges third-term Democratic senator. Sherrod Brown.

Thorunn Sinclair, a spokesman for a pair of Republican super PACs, said one of them, American Crossroads, is pulling $2.8 million out of Montana while the pair are putting millions more into Pennsylvania.

Here you go, Republican. David McCormick is trying to unseat a three-term Democratic senator. Bob Casey on the undercard of a presidential battle that both sides say is close.

McCormick, the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, floated the idea during two debates that Casey would “reliably” support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

In recent days, Casey has begun running ads in conservative areas touting his “greedy inflation” legislation to drive up prices. The ad says “Casey stood up to Biden to defend fracking” and “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs.

Republicans say Casey’s ad featuring Trump is similar to a television ad the senator ran. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin goes on the air and talks about the need for both Democrats to protect themselves from Harris’ vulnerability in their states.

“They hope to take away enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

However, Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections, which he won handily (though the ad did not mention Trump), while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long been split with Democrats by opposing free trade agreements. trade and supporting fossil fuel energy. projects.

Democrats, on the other hand, say they are forcing competitive races in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Knocking out Republican incumbents from one or both of those seats could help Democrats achieve at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose Montana or Ohio.

In Texas, member of the US House of Representatives. Colin Allreda former professional footballer who has proven he has a knack for raising small donations. in his call incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Allred outperformed every Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.

Allred’s ad spend advantage was 3 to 2, according to AdImpact, with the pro-Democrat Senate Majority PAC touting a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy attacking Cruz on a key issue for Democrats – abortion rights.

In addition, Democrats hope Harris rally in Houston on Friday with Allred, and Beyonce could help Allred by increasing black voter turnout.

IN Nebraskaindependent Dan Osborne — A tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some gains among Republicans, Democratic strategists say.

Although Osborne is running as an independent and has not said which party he will work with, he is receiving support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending advantage over the Republican senator. Deb Fisher.

In both states, Republicans acknowledge they had to spend unexpected money to shore up their incumbents’ prospects, but they also say they expect a comfortable victory.

In Ohio, Brown tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his commercials and speaking directly to the camera.

“I’m Sherrod Brown, and I have a question,” Brown says, looking into the camera and leaning his elbow on what could be a woodshop table. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to do for Ohio?”

Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential undecided voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement and “presidents of both parties to do what’s best for our state.”

Elsewhere, strategists are eyeing their first term Florida Sep. Rick Scott will fend off a Democratic challenge Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and that Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in navy blue Maryland will defeat the former governor Larry Hogan to fill the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.

___

Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smith in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report. Follow Mark Levy on twitter.com/timelywriter.

Latest local news | First Weather Alert | Crime | National | 13abc Originals