Texas Tech vs. Iowa State: Predictions and Picks – Week 10 of College Football

The Iowa State Cyclones look to continue their perfect record in their Week 10 home game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Cyclones are impressive, but is a 13.5-point spread too wide for a conference game?

Read my predictions for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State below to see my top picks. college football picks on Saturday, November 2.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State: Prediction and Best Bet

My best choice
Texas Tech +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Selections made at the time of writing may not reflect actual odds.

My analysis
The Big 12 is a conference of chaos. Almost any team can win any match – there is little margin for error as there are rarely clear favorites and no opponent can go unnoticed given the parity.

That’s why when I see a team as a 13.5-point favorite in this conference, I do a double-take and dive deeper to see if that line is warranted. Let me tell you what this audit revealed for Iowa State Cyclones And Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Cyclones outgained their opponents by +1.4 yards per play. The point is that they also benefited from a +9 turnover differential, which may or may not be sustainable going forward.

The Red Raiders turned the ball over 12 times and have a +2 turnover differential. The defense has a lot of work to do (115th in EPA per game, 107th in success rate), but the offense is moving and developing (30th in EPA per game, 27th in success rate).

Defender Beren Morton was forced out of last week’s game before half-time but has trained this week and appears to be on track to play. If he’s not ready, true freshman Will Hammond looks like a promising star and provides a very solid backup.

I’m hesitant to buy into the hype surrounding Iowa State in part because the Cyclones haven’t made much of an impression in terms of success. This is a stat that I value a lot because it essentially tells you whether you can consistently move the ball on offense and stop other teams from doing so on defense.

Iowa State ranks just 82nd in scoring offense and 63rd in scoring defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht completed just 43.5% of his 46 pass attempts last time out against UCF’s poor passing defense, and the defense gave up 7.1 yards per play to a team that could barely complete the forward pass.

There are enough warning signs that would make me give up a significant favorite, especially in a conference full of chaos where I want to be the underdog more often than not.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State, One Game Game (SGP)

Texas Tech +12.5

More than 56.5

Jayden Higgins lands any time

Caleb Douglas lands anytime

For all I’ve said about the Texas Tech offense’s ability to move the ball, the same and the opposite needs to be said about its pathetic defense. The Red Raiders are allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per game overall and are giving up 491.8 yards per game in their last four contests.

The Cyclones should score, especially since they have one of the best wide receiver duos in the country in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins has caught six touchdown passes and ranks second in scoring. PFF ranking in the Big 12, second only to superstar Travis Hunter.

Tech has given up multiple points in three of its last four games. The Red Raiders rank 104th in EPA per pass rush and 107th in pass rush efficiency while producing little pressure (126th in front-seven chaos, 82nd in PFF pass rush). , so Becht should have time to take them apart piece by piece.

Caleb Douglas has been a monster in Tech’s last three games, leading the team in targets (30), receptions (22), receiving yards (359) and touchdowns (3). He looks poised for a very strong finish to the season, regardless of who is under center.

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Texas Tech vs. Iowa State: Odds

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Live Odds

Texas Tech Opening Odds vs. Iowa State

• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State: Iowa State -14.5
• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Moneyline: Texas Tech +450, Iowa State -600
• Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Both teams have benefited from the spread as of late. Texas Tech is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall while Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Texas Tech is 13-8 in its previous 22 meetings with Iowa State and has won each of the last two games in the series.
• Both teams tend to over. Texas Tech is 3-1 O/U in their last four and Iowa State is 6-3 O/U in their last nine.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Trends You Need to Know

Iowa State is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against Big 12 opponents. Find more American Football Betting Trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Game Information

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Texas Tech and Iowa State Weather

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