CNN Data Guru Reveals Signs Pointing to a Harris Win: Democrats May ‘Surprise a Lot of People’

CNN senior reporter Harry Enten discussed factors pointing to a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris next Tuesday.

Enten made the case for Harris’ victory Thursday, explaining why she is the more popular candidate who historically tends to win re-election, as well as the fact that Democratic candidates in recent special elections have outperformed President Biden’s 2020 election. an indication that Harris can do the same.

“The signs are clear as day,” Enten said at the start of the presentation, noting that if Harris wins, these will be obvious factors leading to victory.

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Enten started with a simple fact: every presidential election since 1956 has been won by the more popular candidate, with the exception of the 2016 election, which was won by the less popular Trump.

“And the No. 1 sign is that Harris is, simply put, more popular than Donald Trump. Her net favorable rating is higher than Trump’s. She has minus two, Trump has minus seven. I went all the way back to 1956 and looked at the polls. The more popular candidate usually wins. The answer is absolutely yes.”

He continued: “16 times the more popular candidate won. Only once has the less popular candidate won. I’ll note that it was Donald Trump back in 2016. But of course remember Hillary Clinton she herself was very unpopular.”

He summarized the results by saying: “But the bottom line is this: Kamala Harris has been consistently more popular in the polls than Donald Trump. the more popular one wins on election day.”

The next sign Enten discussed was that Democratic candidates over the past two years have led the last presidential election by an average of two points in special races.

“So the fact that these Democrats are doing better than Joe Biden is a good sign. presidential elections.”

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Enten then addressed the fact that Democratic candidates did well in the 2022 midterm elections, despite only 27 percent of Americans believing the country on the right track and Biden’s approval rating at the time was just 42 percent—factors that typically indicate defeat for the party in power at the ballot box.

“You can see it right here in 2024. Only 28% say the country is on the right track, while 40% approve of Joe Biden’s job performance. But remember, in 2022, these numbers looked terribly, terribly similar – in fact, a little less thought the country was on the right track, a little more approved of Joe Biden’s job, but these are very similar numbers,” he said.

“And remember,” he added, “even though Democrats’ fundamentals were poor in 2022, the White House party has historically done well in this midterm.”

He then concluded his argument: “So the point is, Kate, many Democrats believe that when voters vote, they win. And since abortion is a much bigger issue this time than historically, that was 2022, Democrats.” historically it has worked out well.”

“Perhaps next Tuesday the Democrats will surprise many and do well historically.”

This presentation followed Enten’s talk the day before, which detailed signs pointing to victory of former President Trump November 5th.

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