Harris leads Trump by 3 points in Michigan: Free Press poll

The Free Press’s latest poll of likely Michigan voters ahead of Tuesday’s election showed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points, helped by growing support among women and black voters, but still within plus or minus the survey. Error 4 points.

Follows a statewide survey conducted by USA TODAY and Suffolk University. which showed Trump ahead by just four-tenths of a percentage point, a new poll means Michigan, a key battleground state in the last two presidential elections and a destination that has seen dozens of campaigners travel to both campaigns this year, remains in doubt.

The poll, conducted by Lansing for the Free Press’ EPIC-MRA and its media partners, found Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leading Trump 48% to 45%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Natural Law Party candidate who dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot, each received 3% support, while independent Cornel West received 1%.

The number of undecided respondents was so small in the poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters between last Thursday and this Monday, that it was less than 1%, according to pollster EPIC-MRA Bernie Porn, he’s not sure he did it. seen before. “This is no ordinary election,” he said.

While the poll was good news for Harris, her level of support in the EPIC-MRA polls increased by 3 percentage points compared to the August figure, while Trump’s fell by 1 point. and that was it For the first time, Democrats led the presidential race in the firm’s polls. since November last year – with some reservations.

The percentage of voters who viewed her favorably was slightly lower than those who viewed Trump favorably: 45% to his 47%, for example. The percentage of her supporters who considered themselves highly motivated to vote for her was high at 78%, but still slightly behind Trump supporters at 84%.

Additionally, Trump is believed to have outperformed Michigan polls in 2016, when he won the state, and in 2020, when he lost it, and could do so again by displacing his base.

But there were also strong signs that Harris’ message was resonating as the election approached and that Trump’s support levels may have stabilized.

Her support among black voters, a key constituency in Michigan, has jumped 18 points since August, and polling shows her leading Trump among that bloc (87%-5%). much closer to the level of support Biden received in 2020. Among white voters, she trailed Trump, who had 50% to her 44%, but that 4-point margin was closer than Trump’s 55%-44% lead over Democratic President Joe Biden in Michigan with white voters in 2020 , according to Exit. surveys.

And while she still trails men (42% to Trump’s 48%), her support among women has risen 5 points since August, with her leading the former president among a typically larger voting bloc (53%-42%).

“(Supporting) black men will no longer be an issue (for Harris) with (former President Barack) Obama did and (former First Lady) Michelle Obama did,” Porn said, referring to the two’s recent campaign visits to the state. “I expected there to be room for her to grow with the black vote.”

If elected, Harris, a former U.S. senator and California attorney general, would become the first woman, first Black woman and first woman of South Asian descent to become U.S. president. Trump, a former television host, real estate mogul and businessman, is seeking to become the first former president to be reelected since Grover Cleveland in 1892.

Harris became the Democratic nominee behind Biden this summer. surrounded by questions about his age and poor poll resultsdropped out of the race, but quickly consolidated the party behind itself.

What is Donald Trump’s favorite car? Cadillac, just like his father

Donald Trump and his father Fred Trump share a taste for cars, Trump shared during his meeting in Warren, Michigan, on September 27, 2024.

Kennedy and Stein’s support seems to be having an effect

Harris may have gained a slight lead in this latest poll because Kennedy’s name remained on the ballot despite his withdrawal.

Among self-identified Republicans, 5% said they still vote for Kennedy, as do 6% of the 11% of voters who identified themselves as independents. On Tuesday, The US Supreme Court rejected Kennedy’s request to remove him from the ballot. in Michigan and Wisconsin after expiration after the deadline.

But Harris’ chances also appeared to be threatened by third parties, including from Stein, the Green Party candidate. who supported the “Dump Harris” movement seeking to attract voters Michigan’s large Arab-American and Muslim communities are seeking to punish Harris and the Biden administration for failing to demand an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and for failing to comply with the Israeli arms embargo.

When asked what issue was most decisive for them in the election, 75% of Stein’s supporters said foreign policy was an indication that the Gaza conflict was a motivating factor, given that only 5% of those surveyed overall ranked foreign policy that highly. priority.

Stein had nowhere near the level of support among self-proclaimed Democrats (1%) that Kennedy had among Republicans, and Harris’ support rate among Democrats was 95% to Trump’s 3%. (Among Republicans, Trump led Harris 89-4%). But Stein had significantly higher levels of support from 13% of self-identified independent voters, a potentially important group of swing voters among whom Harris held a 4-point lead over Trump. , 40%-36%.

Eight years ago Stein received about 1% of the vote in Michiganor about 51,000 votes in the race. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by 10,704 votes.

Split over which candidate is better at solving problems

When asked what issue most motivated them to vote, 30% overall named inflation and the cost of living – a Trump and Republicans have been crushing Democrats since inflation — which declined last year — increased sharply during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. Among Trump supporters, 47% said it was their biggest motivating factor.

But Harris, who has resisted the issue, saying she will fight price gouging and that her rival’s plans for much higher import tariffs will raise consumer prices instead of lowering them and creating jobs as he claims, appears to be convinced some voters. it should be trusted to fight inflation. The poll found that 45% of respondents overall think she is better positioned to address the issue, compared with 49% who think Trump is doing so.

On these issues, 18% of respondents said abortion was their top issue, a key issue for Harris and second only to inflation, with 32% of her supporters saying it motivated their vote; another 12% chose immigration, a key issue for Trump, as their top issue. who railed about a surge in encounters with illegal immigrants along the southern border. before the recent crackdown: 25% of his supporters said this was the driving force behind their vote for him. Another 10% said their top concern is a candidate’s fitness for office, pushing 16% of Harris voters (who apparently don’t believe Trump is capable of becoming president, but she is) to 4% of Trump voters (who They don’t believe Harris is right for the job, but he is).

However, there were wide differences in who voters thought could handle some of the issues better.

Trump, for example, received much higher ratings as the best way to end the war in Ukraine (53%-39%), secure the southern border (59%-36%) and stop fighting in the Middle East (48%-36%). . Harris was seen as better able to protect abortion rights (64%-23%) and protect Medicare and Social Security benefits (52%-39%).

How things are going for everyone in different regions, among different groups

Among different age groups in Michigan, the poll found Harris faring better among voters ages 18 to 34 (50% to Trump’s 39%) and voters over 65 (58%-38%), while he leads among voters 35-49 years old. (48%-40%) and 50-64 (51%-45%). In each of those age groups, Harris has made some improvement over the past two months.

Trump still holds a significant lead of 51% to 42% among voters who did not attend college; Among those who did, Harris had a larger lead, 54%-39%. (A word of caution with all of these subgroups, however: because they involve fewer voters than the full sample of 600, the margin of error for each will be higher, and in some cases significantly higher, than plus or minus 4). percentage points.)

In metro Detroit, which EPIC-MRA defines as Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and is the state’s largest congressional district, Harris had a healthy lead of 54% to 38%, much better than her margin of 46% to 43%. in August. She trailed in most other parts of the state, except for the outer metro region, which includes the outer suburbs of Detroit and Washtenaw County, home to Ann Arbor, where she led 58%-40%.

In central, western and northern Michigan, and the Bay City and Thumb areas, Trump led by 6 points (51-45% in central Michigan) to 28 points (60-32% in the Saginaw Bay area). ).

Finally, the poll found Harris with a 64% to 35% lead over Trump among the 31% of voters who said they had already voted either by absentee voting or at precincts using early in-person voting. Among absentee voters overall, Harris had a 66%-31% lead, while Trump led 52%-38% among those planning to vote at the polls, suggesting that, as we saw in 2020, quite It is possible that the former president will have an advantage, perhaps a significant one, in the early statewide vote count, which is estimated to take more hours or even days.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.