NWSL Regular Season Final Scenarios Explained

The curtain falls on the 2024 NWSL regular season this weekend.

The Orlando Pride have already won the NWSL Shield, a trophy awarded to the club that tops the standings at the end of the regular season. Thus, the purple-clad Floridians will also enter the playoffs as number one.

The top eight teams in the standings will advance to the standings. 2024 NWSL Playoffs and compete for the coveted NWSL championship. In addition to Orlando, five teams have already booked tickets for the postseason: the Washington Spirit, New Jersey/New York Gotham, KC Current, NK Courage and the Chicago Red Stars.

In this cluster of five qualified teams, the final spots are still open, with the exception of Courage. North Carolina can’t finish anywhere other than fifth. Red Star cannot rise above sixth place, so they finish sixth, seventh or eighth in the standings.

The battle for second place is very close. A decision will be made this weekend. The Spirit and Gotham are tied on points (53), with Current just one point behind (52). The trio can finish from second to fourth place in any combination depending on the results of their matches.

Whatever happens, the trio will all play in the NWSL quarterfinals. But a second seed would guarantee a semi-final if the club progressed that far.

With the top six players determined in the postseason, the big question is: who will fill the last two remaining playoff spots?

Elimination games for the top three teams begin this weekend. The Portland Thorns (31 points), the Bay (31 points) and Racing Louisville (28 points) are three teams still in contention for the playoffs.

This weekend, the Thorns host Angel City, Bay travels to the Houston Dash, and Racing finishes the weekend against the San Diego Wave.

Portland and Bay currently sit in seventh and eighth place and have a fairly simple goal: just don’t lose. A win or a draw is enough.

One point ensures both clubs will advance to the 2024 NWSL playoffs and eliminate Louisville. Three points would even give any club a chance to move above Chicago into sixth place.

The first thing Louisville needs is to lose one of Portland and the Bay (or both). Racing must also defeat the Wave. At least three points will be enough.

Portland and Bay are currently three points ahead of Louisville in the standings, meaning they can’t be overtaken on points. However, the tiebreaker after points is goal difference. And in terms of goal difference, the three teams are ranked as follows: Thorns -1, Racing -4, and then Bay -11.

Bay’s significantly lower goal differential means that if there were a three-game tie with Portland losing, Bay losing and Louisville winning, Bay would be eliminated.

This means that for Portland to be eliminated, they would have to lose to Angel City, Bay would have to tie or win against Houston, and Louisville would have to beat San Diego to make up a three-goal deficit in the tie. break.

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility. For example, if Portland lost 1–0 and Louisville won 3–0, they would have the same number of points at 31, but Louisville would move to a better goal differential (-1).

If Portland and Louisville finish tied on points and goal difference, then it moves on to the next tiebreaker, which is a total victory. The Thorns’ nine wins dwarf Racing’s seven. Even if Louisville wins the final weekend, its win total will be just eight.

So this means Louisville must beat Thorns on goal differential and cannot expect to tie the game on goal differential. To make the playoffs, Racing will have to make up that three-goal deficit if Portland loses and the Bay draw or win.

Friday, November 1

Saturday, November 2

Sunday, November 3