How Illinois resumes season Saturday

Despite a disappointing loss to Oregon last Saturday, No. 24 Illinois (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) is still positioned to have its most successful season in decades.

However, that requires a win in Saturday’s home game against hot Minnesota (11 a.m. CT on FS1). From a mathematical standpoint, that’s not entirely true: The Illini still have some wiggle room as they strive for their first 10-win season since 2001. But is this real? Losing can lead to morale-crushing self-doubt that sends a team unaccustomed to strife into a death spiral.

While Illinois is ranked And When playing at home, the Illini remain a (+3) underdog against the unranked Gophers.

And how exactly are the Illini going to, ahem, upset Minnesota?

First things first: win the loss battle.

The Gophers have won three straight against USC, UCLA and Maryland. Tellingly, they actually trailed the Trojans and Bruins in total yards—and managed to outscore Maryland by just 16 yards even in a brutal 48-23 rout of the Terrapins.

It doesn’t take a supercomputer to figure out exactly how Minnesota has made a difference. 8 to 1 advantage in turnover margin.

The Gophers are one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and despite their mediocre passing game, their secondary poses a threat to opposing defenders. Minnesota’s 15 interceptions rank second in the FBS, ahead of freshman cornerback Koi Perich’s five picks.

On offense, guard Max Brosmer has thrown just four interceptions on the season, and the Gophers have limited their turnovers to three.

The result for the Illini is that cornerback Luke Altmaier protects the football well himself (only three interceptions) while putting up excellent performance in more games than others. Moreover, Illinois D itself is not lagging behind in terms of involuntary turnover (14).

What’s troubling, however, is that Altmaier’s two picks were picked last week against an Oregon secondary that entered the game with just five players in 2024 while the Illini defense managed just one turnover. These trends need to change immediately to give Illinois a better chance of getting past the Gophers.

Another pressing question for the Illini: running. And run well.

Minnesota has allowed 191.3 yards per game in its three losses. In their only double-digit loss to Iowa, the Gophers gave up a whopping 272 yards.

It’s (finally) a trend that’s benefiting the Illini as their running game has picked up significantly in recent weeks.

In the overtime win over Purdue, the Illini rushed for 177 yards and then crushed Michigan’s elite defense for 187 yards. Even against Oregon, where Illinois faced a massive second-half deficit that forced Altmaier’s hand (and arm) to be thrown, the Illini still managed over 130 yards on the ground.

The formula seems simple: feed the three-headed running hydra of Josh McCray, Aidan Lochery and Ka’Lil Valentine.

Obviously, offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. will still have to adjust his playmaking skills, but with Altmaier stranded and receiver Pat Bryant unlikely to play Saturday, the long ball could end up being the long shot against the Gophers. Here’s an alternative game plan we humbly propose:

Invert the approach. Show a healthy dose of package spread on first down, second and long, creatively pitching and passing draws and delays against favorable defenders. Focus the passing game on quick slants and screen passes for running looks, as well as fake plays to free up running backs and open up tight ends in the flat zone and allow Altmaier to get his rhythm back.

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