Erosion of the perception of invincibility – Firstpost

In light of recent events following the Hamas offensive against Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah finds itself at a critical crossroads. Historically recognized as the preeminent military and political entity in Lebanon and the Middle East as a whole, Hezbollah currently faces serious challenges in maintaining its respected status and operational effectiveness, exacerbated by a series of strategic miscalculations, mounting casualties and internal turmoil.

The unpredictable characteristics of Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood initially placed Hezbollah in a state of significant disorganization. Historically recognized as the poster child of the Lebanese resistance, Hezbollah has been particularly slow to react, misinterpreting Hamas messages. The organization, which has primarily focused its efforts on increasing regional dominance as an Iranian proxy rather than on direct relations with Israel since the withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon in 2000, has nevertheless created a front in southern Lebanon to relieve pressure on Hamas.

Contrary to Hezbollah’s expectations of a quick resolution, the protracted conflict has seen Israeli forces gradually push Hezbollah away from the border, undermining its historical status as a deterrent and provoking domestic calls for disarmament.

The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during an Israeli airstrike in September 2024 significantly worsened existing turmoil within the organization. This significant incident shattered Hezbollah’s long-held belief in its invulnerability, plunging the group into unprecedented levels of turmoil. Not only did the organization face obstacles in finding Nasrallah’s successor, but it also failed to adhere to basic Islamic burial traditions, resulting in Nasrallah remaining unburied for longer than the usual 24 hours. This situation illustrates the serious organizational inadequacy within Hezbollah, as its failure to respect its late leader indicates a significant deterioration in operational performance.

Iran’s Strategic Influence on Hezbollah’s Future

It is critical to recognize that Iran’s current engagement with Hezbollah indicates a diminishing focus on protecting its military assets, instead emphasizing the potential consequences of Hezbollah’s regression—or development—for advancing Iran’s strategic priorities in the region. In this context, Hezbollah can be seen as being of greater importance to Iran as an instrument of strategic influence in critical geopolitical discussions, rather than simply as a legitimate military force.

Tehran could see the group’s military defeat or retreat from southern Lebanon as a strategic concession that could be used to gain influence in other regions, such as Iraq. If Hezbollah is perceived as ineffective in countering Israeli maneuvers or defending Lebanese territorial sovereignty, Iran could advocate reducing its status as a military entity, capitalizing on its reduction to negotiate concessions on other issues, including its nuclear ambitions or regional hegemony in Iraq .

This creates the possibility of a post-Hezbollah era, defined either by the dissolution of the organization or its transformation into a purely political entity. However, Hezbollah’s discourse continually relies on resistance ideology, and in the absence of its military means, it may face significant challenges in maintaining its political relevance both within Lebanon and within the broader geopolitical framework.

Post-Hezbollah phase

The dissolution of Hezbollah will undoubtedly create a significant power vacuum within the Lebanese state. According to Imad Salamei, a distinguished scholar of Lebanese affairs and political scientist at the Lebanese American University, “dismantling Hezbollah’s operational capabilities will likely strengthen its opponents and anti-Iran factions within Lebanon.” Salamey also foresees that the looming power vacuum could spark civil unrest and destroy the fabric of social harmony – and could encourage international players to exploit the unrest for their own gain.

Given the apparent deterioration of the group’s fortunes, Hezbollah’s domestic opponents could use this situation to further marginalize the organization. In this scenario, the Amal Movement and Nabih Berri assume paramount importance. As a veteran speaker of parliament and head of the Shiite Amal movement, Berri has traditionally wielded considerable influence in Lebanon’s sectarian political landscape. In a Lebanon emerging from Hezbollah’s rule, Berri’s authority will play an important role in guiding the political evolution of the Shiite community.

However, the question remains whether Hezbollah can survive as a mere political force without its formidable military force. The core of the organization’s narrative was inextricably linked to its position as a bastion of resistance, and the absence of key figures such as Hassan Nasrallah could significantly jeopardize Hezbollah’s ability to function in the political sphere.

Deprived of the legitimacy provided by its military wing, Hezbollah will face serious problems in gaining domestic support. Conversely, Berri could emerge as a key Shia leader capable of steering this transformation, potentially helping to either consolidate the political landscape or exacerbate sectarian divisions. His deep-rooted connections in the Lebanese political system, as well as his ability to mediate between different factions, could make him a cornerstone of any Shia political program in a post-Hezbollah context. However, the ability of the Amal and Berri Movements to flourish independently without Hezbollah support remains an open question.

Conclusion

Hezbollah’s expected future is now inextricably linked to evolving regional dynamics in which Iran perceives the organization as an indispensable asset in its negotiations with global powers. As Hezbollah suffers military setbacks and its influence in Lebanon wanes, its dual identity as a resistance organization and a political movement hangs precariously in the balance. At this critical moment, Iran’s determination to either support Hezbollah or allow its disintegration remains ambiguous. Conversely, Lebanon finds itself at a critical crossroads—potentially its final stage—where changes in demographics, political alliances, and regional arrangements will significantly shape its development trajectory and the well-being of its population.

The author is a foreign policy analyst based in India. The views expressed in the article above are personal and belong solely to the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.