Unusual ways to find the Cup winner

Trying to decide on the Cup winner? Racing.com’s Sam Lyons takes a different look at this year’s race

History tells us a lot about racing and no race in the country is more important than the Melbourne Cup. Let’s look at some of the key statistics you’ll see in Tuesday’s form guide and how history can make them work for you.

Jockeys

Of the participating drivers, Kerryn McEvoy is the most successful driver in the race, having won the Cup three times. Mark Zara is the only other multiple winner, with two wins including recent editions. Of the others, only Craig Williams and Jay McNeil had previously won the Cup.

Verdict: If you want to follow proven jockeys, Kerryn McAvoy will ride Absurde and Mark Zara will be aboard Circle Of Fire. Both should give you a good chance.

Sneakers

Bart Cummings holds an unprecedented record of 12 Melbourne Cup victories. This year, three trainers who have already won will be looking to add another win to their record. Ciaron Maher, Chris Waller and Guy Waterhouse.

Verdict: Ciaron Maher and Chris Waller have a total of nine runners and Guy Waterhouse has one, so some nuance will be required here. For Maher supporters, consider boxing Circle of Fire (3), Okita Sushi (12), Interpretation (18) and St. George (22). Waller fans should try to do the same with Buckaroo (2), Kovalika (5), Land Legend (8), Valiant King (16) and Manzoice (19). If you’re betting on Guy Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, you should bet on Just Fine.

Barriers

Historically, hurdle position has not been a significant factor, but hurdles 5–12 have the highest success rates since records began in 1924, with hurdle 5 producing eight winners. Inland hurdles as “zone” 1–4 have the lowest success rate, with hurdle 18 having only one win, Verry Elligant in 2021. Without A Fight won at hurdle 16 last year.

Verdict: If you’re looking for a lucky hurdle, Trust In You, trained by Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley, jumps over hurdle 5 and is currently priced at $101. So if the barrier gods are on your side on Tuesday, you will be richly rewarded.

Age

Four- and five-year-olds have the best record, winning 55% of all Melbourne Cups and recording 90 wins. Six-year-olds are next with 21% of wins, while three-year-olds haven’t won since 1941 and account for just 14% of wins. Seven-year-olds make up 8% of the winners, while eight-year-olds make up just 2%.

Verdict: Horses in the four- and five-year-old sweet spot include Circle Of Fire, Kovalica, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, Land Legend, Knight’s Choice, Zardozi, Valiant King, Manzoice, Positivity and Saint George. You have no shortage of options here.

Weights

Weight has historically played a major role in determining Melbourne Cup success. Since Rising Fast won in 1954, only seven horses over 56kg have achieved victory, with Makybe Diva (2005) and Gold Trip (2022) being the most recent examples. The cup scales have changed this year, with a maximum weight of just 55.5kg and a minimum weight varying up to 50kg, giving a slight variation of 5.5kg.

Verdict: If we want to find an edge on the scales, perhaps this year it is Zardozi, who with her rating of 114 is the third highest rated horse in the race and, thanks to her mare status and lack of penalties, will carry only 51.5. kg. 1.5 kg above the minimum.

Breeding

We will refer to “locally bred” kiwis here because they have always had a deep connection with our great race, but since the Kingston Rule (USA) in 1990, and then the Vintage Crop (IRE) in 1993, internationally bred horses have strengthened their power over the race. In fact, since Media Puzzle (USA) in 2002, internationally bred horses have won 16 of the 22 races that stop the nation. Since 1996, only three horses, Vow And Declare, Shocking & Viewed, have won races for Australian breeders. This year, Australians and New Zealanders have the chance to win back one horse with eight native mounts, up from four in 2023. .

Verdict: If the Irish continue to perform well, then Just Fine, Okita Soushi, Fancy Man, Interpretation and Mostly Cloudy are the ones to watch.

Sex

The Cup has traditionally been dominated by men, with male and female winning percentages ranging from 91% to 9% respectively. If you dig deeper into the male stats, you’ll find that 44% of these winners were whole and 34% were geldings. Only 12% of Melbourne Cup winners were foals. This year makes up all but three of the 2023 Cup entrants.

Verdict: Statistically, they may be against it, but with a 12.5% ​​hit rate this year and a 9% winning strike rate overall, it might be the girls’ year. Yes, I know this is grasping at straws a bit, but it is much easier to add Zardozi, Positivity and Map to your numbers than 21 boys.