US elections won’t be as tight as polls suggest – analyst

With only a few days left until the US election, most polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the fight for the Oval Office..

But according to political analyst, economist and Republican John Jordan, polls are not a true reflection of where votes are heading.

He said Sunday morning that he thought this week’s story would be “Why were the polls so bad?” and he thought it was for several reasons.

“A lot of social scientists are grouped together now, and none of them are willing to take the risk of saying anything more than that, and that’s what they’re all saying,” Jordan said.

“But when you look at these polls of 400 to 800 people and do the math, it’s impossible for every poll to say the same thing, it’s statistically impossible.

“I think pollsters are being cowardly right now, and I think both campaigns want people to believe it’s close, but I don’t think it’s going to be that close.”

We are joined by former US Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa Mark Gilbert. Sunday morning to weigh in on Harris’s handling of the situation, with Trump already suggesting the election could be stolen.

Gilbert said it would be a “free and fair” election.

“New Zealanders need to know that the reason Americans are worried about voting is because of Donald Trump and the Republicans are running around telling them that’s the way it should be,” he said.

“What they’re trying to do now is get people in a state of mind and (put) anxiety into their minds, so when they challenge the election, they have people saying, ‘Oh, the election must have been stolen because we they said it was.”

“But I believe this will be a free and fair election.”

Gilbert took issue with some reports suggesting a potential Trump victory and instead saw Harris ahead in most cases.

“I think the race has been stagnant the last couple of weeks,” Gilbert said.

“I believe we are either tied or plus one or two, maybe even three in some states. I’m very happy with where we are today.”

Gilbert said that some states maybe about 5,000 or 10,000 votes, but backed Harris.

“I believe she will win the election.”

He said it was possible it won’t be until November 5th that there will be a clear picture of the election results.