Electoral College map forecast: Three different forecasts based on polls

There are only a few days left before voters head to the polls across the United States. Recent polls show the presidential race between Democrats Kamala Harris And republican Donald Trump remains tight.

According to University of Florida Elections Lab As of November 1, 66,100,521 early votes have already been cast in the United States, including 35,079,332 early in-person votes and 30,903,354 returned mail-in ballots. Of those who voted, 38.4 percent were recorded as registered. Democrats36.1 percent as republicans and 25.4 percent had no party affiliation.

Winning the 2024 presidential election will require 270 electoral votes. Joe Biden won in 2020 by 306 votes, defeating Donald Trump in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The elections this time are concentrated in seven critical states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A number of organizations have created models to predict the outcome based on a combination of recent surveys, demographic information and other data. Looking at a survey of these models in individual states, Newsweek broke down three possible scenarios that are currently predicted by leading forecasters. It should be noted that the polls in almost all of the battleground states are within the margin of error, meaning that it is more than likely that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will end up winning each of these states.

Newsweek Contacted by email for comment from the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential campaigns.

Harris 270 (VoteHub)

VoteHub projects Harris to win as of Nov. 1, with 270 Electoral College votes for the Democratic nominee to 268 for Trump.

In this scenario, Harris manages to hold the three “Blue Wall” states that Biden won in 2020: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as a highly likely single Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District to get exactly 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win elections.

VoteHub data showed Harris leading in the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although Trump led in North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. In terms of vote share, Harris led with 48.8 percent of the vote to the Republican candidate’s 47.1 percent.

The VoteHub model puts Harris on course for a landslide victory with 270 Electoral College votes. Race for the White House

VoteHub included in its analysis only polls that were rated A+ to B- by Race to the White House. They said: “In our recent polling averages, each poll is given equal weight. When multiple polls are taken from the same poll, the results are averaged. government polls.”

Trump 287 (RealClearPolling)

RealClearPolling Analysis As of November 1, last updated October 30, Trump is on track to win with 287 Electoral College votes compared to 251 for Harris.

In this scenario, Harris holds Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump flips Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania to win the election.

Notably, RealClearPolling’s model suggests Harris has rebounded substantially over the past couple of weeks, with data showing Trump won with 312 Electoral College votes to 226 on Oct. 17.

The data used by RealClearPolling includes polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports, which has been labeled a “right-wing” publication. Washington Post. In March 2024, another major poll analytics site, 538, announced that it would no longer use Rasmussen Reports data in its models.

Trump 297 (Decision Division Headquarters)

Analysis published Decision Desk and The Hill HeadquartersIn the last update on October 28, Trump received 297 Electoral College votes to 241 for Harris after all the votes were distributed. That figure was calculated by adding up each state’s Electoral College votes, based on projections from Decision Desk HQ.

In this scenario, Harris only holds Michigan while Trump flips Wisconsin as well as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania to win the election.

Overall, Decision Desk HQ gave Trump a 54 percent chance of winning on Nov. 5 to Harris’ 46 percent.

The model classified Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan as toss-up states, although Trump had a slight lead in all but the latter.

After toss-up states were excluded from the model Decision Service, the Trump campaign received 235 Electoral College votes to 226 for Harris.