Here’s who’s winning the Key Turnaround State

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris is vying to become the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years as most polls show her and former President Donald Trump in a tight race – with Trump having slight lead in three new polls released. this week and Harris is ahead in two more.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Greenville, North Carolina.

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Key facts

Harris leads 48%-46% in the New York Times/Siena poll. survey will be released on Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), although Trump is ahead 49%-47% in Morning consultation The poll was also released Sunday with Harris up 48% to 47% among likely voters, according to CNN/SSRS. vote release on Thursday (error 4.5 points).

Trump has a 49% to 47% lead over Harris among likely voters, while 4% chose another candidate. Fox News poll released Wednesday, although his lead is cut to one point (50%-49%) in a two-way matchup, with a margin of error of three points.

Trump also leads among likely voters in North Carolina (50-48%) in the Cooperative Election Study. vote Last week there was a major national survey supported by universities and conducted by YouGov (2,308 respondents).

Trump leads among likely voters by the same margin, 50% to 48%, in both Marist and vote and Emerson vote earlier this month and rose 49.6%-48.5%, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult. vote published Oct. 23, all within the polls’ margin of error (Emerson’s 3.1, Marist’s 3.6 and Bloomberg’s 4).

Cook’s Political Report North Carolina went from “lean Republican” to “loser” in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris entered the race, and the latest Cook poll released earlier this month shows that Harris and Trump have equal chances. , after Harris led by one point in August.

Amazing fact

If Harris wins the state, she has a nearly 90% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver. Voter Power Indexwhich showed Trump would have a more than 80% chance of winning the Electoral College if he wins North Carolina.

Key background

North Carolina has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina’s shift to the left is largely due to population growth among likely voters who typically support Democrats, including the highly educated, especially at 5.6%. according to Brookings Institution. The area is home to three major research universities—Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the University of North Carolina—which have also fueled the development of related high-tech and life sciences industries and made it the tenth fastest-growing region in the country. According to Brookings. And the overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree — a Democratic-leaning demographic group — has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to study University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

What to pay attention to

Could scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina? Trump endorsed Robinson in front of CNN report has revealed a series of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornography website’s forum before entering politics, including calling himself a “black Nazi”. Polls taken since the Sept. 19 release show Democratic candidate Josh Stein has increased his lead over Robinson to 19 points in recent polls. Emerson College Poll. The CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27 also showed Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points and tied between Trump and Harris, suggesting Robinson’s scandals have not affected Trump’s standing there. Historically, the demise of unvoted candidates rarely results in the downfall of the affiliate party’s presidential candidate. notes CNN.

Large number

16. That’s how many Electoral College votes North Carolina has after the 2020 Census. The state has the eighth-highest number of electoral votes in the country, behind Georgia.

Contra

Despite the electorate’s growing Democratic leanings, Republicans have supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature, giving them the ability to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto.