Yard signs in one Kansas House neighborhood suggest Johnson County is turning bluer

The influx of Democratic yard signs could signal a shift toward bluer Johnson County, even if the signs don’t align with party affiliation.

The potential shift is evident in Republican Rep. Carl Turner’s seven-block stretch of Overland Park, where more than half of the 90 political signs support Democrats. Only 29% of registered voters in the district are Democrats, compared to 46% Republicans.

Democrat Ace Allen is challenging Turner again this year after losing to Turner by just 60 votes in 2022. Allen said requests for his yard sign have doubled since his campaign two years ago.

“The most encouraging thing about yard signs, as opposed to street signs, is that they actually point to the voter,” Allen said.

Turner did not respond to interview requests.

Knowing the name can help

Columbia University Study, 2015 found that a candidate with more yard signs has an advantage, and yard signs can bring in 1-2% of the vote. Research has found that yard signs can be a deciding factor in local races.

“You don’t have to assume that yard signs are equal votes. But they can influence voters who see them and potentially help candidates, said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University. “They will have positive associations with that name, and if they don’t know that much when they walk into the voting booth, they may end up voting for that candidate just because they know that name.”

Turner and Allen are donating their signs to the exhibit. Former President Donald Trump is selling yard signs for $24, and Vice President Kamala Harris is selling them for $20.

Among the homes that posted political signs in the Turner area, Harris signs were much more likely to be seen than Trump signs. Beatty attributes this to the new energy and enthusiasm Harris brought to the campaign.

“The battle has begun”

Tracy Nauser, who has five Harris signs in her yard, is among the Turner neighborhood residents. She is also an abortionist whose lawsuit led to a 2019 Kansas Supreme Court ruling that the state’s constitutional right to bodily autonomy includes the right to terminate a pregnancy.

Nauser’s signs include one from the Harris campaign and several from other sources such as Etsy, with phrases like “Who is your child’s best role model?” on them. Nauser said she never had a negative relationship with her neighbors because of her signs and that she received compliments on them, mostly for being role models.

Nauser said she noticed fewer signs in her area compared to the 2016 and 2020 elections. In the past, she saw more signs of Trump than Clinton or Biden, but now sees mostly signs of the Democratic Party. She says the shift happened because of Trump.

“He is a pathological liar and a fascist, and he has taken away women’s reproductive rights,” Nauser said. “I think it’s a huge problem.”

No one answered the door in houses where Trump signs were posted.

Beatty says the decline in Trump signs is more difficult to explain. He said Trump supporters have been proudly showing their support for the past eight years.

“This is probably the first time since 2016 that Democrats have felt free to do the same thing,” Beatty said. “Perhaps there are not so few signs of Trump – they just entered the battle for the first time since 16.”

Beatty believes there is a “very high” chance Johnson County will turn bluer this election. Clinton lost the district by 2.5 percentage points in 2016.And Biden won it by 8.2 points in 2020.. Beatty said abortion rights are a major reason Johnson County could turn blue again.

Political signs are peppered with posters reading “Love Thy Neighbor,” “Do unto Others,” “Unity,” and “Kindness.” This is from the Church of the Resurrection, the largest church in Kansas.

Church founder and senior pastor Adam Hamilton has never publicly endorsed a political candidate. He has long been an advocate for LGBTQ+ inclusivity in the church and in 2022 declared himself a “pro-life activist with a heavy heart.” In 2020, he supported the Black Lives Matter movement and used his churches as vaccination sites.

The church signs matched exclusively with Allen and Harris signs.

This story was originally published Kansas reflector