Revered pollster Anne Seltzer believes Trump is losing Iowa to Harris—why it matters

Iowa Poll A poll of 808 likely voters polled Oct. 28-31 and released late Saturday (margin of error 3.4 points) shows Harris leading the state 47% to 44%, after Trump led by four points in Iowa in the September Seltzer poll for the newspaper and 18 points in June against President Joe Biden.

The poll found that politically independent voters, women and older voters are driving Harris’ rise in a state that could lead the rest of the country.

Harris has overtaken Trump in support among independents in Iowa overall and now leads 46%-39%, and she leads among independent women by 28 points, a sharp swing from a five-point lead in September, although independent men still Trump is favored by a much smaller margin of 47-37%.

Harris leads among women over 65 (63%-28%) and men in that age group (47%-45%), according to the poll.

Selzer, a respected figure among politicians, began her polling career as a staff member for the Des Moines Register and has overseen Iowa polls since 1987 before founding her own firm, Selzer & Co., in the 1990s.

Statistician Nate Silver ranks Seltzer among the top two highest-rated public opinion polls in the United States, behind only the New York Times/Siena, according to his rating scale, which takes into account historical accuracy and transparency/disclosure standards, as well as the poll’s statistical bias toward Democratic or Republican candidates parties.

Seltzer’s most famous poll is perhaps her 2008 poll, which accurately predicted that an influx of new caucus participants would give former President Barack Obama a victory.