Why Dan Osborne’s Nebraska Senate Win Could Irritate Both Sides

Nebraska Senate seats have long been uncompetitive for Republicans since the last time a Democrat was elected to represent the state in the upper house was in 2006. As a result, Republicans didn’t expect to spend much time or resources in the Cornhusker State as they focused on current vulnerabilities that would likely flip in their favor and give them the Senate majority.

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The changes began after the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in late September. That prompted national Republicans to pour millions of dollars into the race and divert some resources to ensure they didn’t lose a safe seat by gaining others.

Osborne attracted national attention after presenting himself as an outsider candidate with deep connections to the working class. Speaking to supporters at a campaign rally in Omaha on Sunday, Osborne pointed to his experience leading the Kellogg workers’ strike as a union leader in 2021, saying he was motivated by workers’ interests rather than party-line issues.

“That’s not how I really saw my world. I’ve been a registered independent since I was able to vote, and I didn’t see men or women, black or white, Republican or Democrat on the picket lines,” Osborne said. “I just saw people who wanted to go to work for a fair wage and decent benefits.”

But even if Osborne can defeat Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) and wrest the seat from GOP control, it won’t be a complete victory for Democrats. Osborne has repeatedly said he won’t align himself with either party, which could make him a powerful voice in the Senate, much like Sens. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) have wielded enormous influence at the top. camera.

“I’m a true independent, and I’ve said time and time again that I don’t caucuse with Democrats,” he said. Osborne told Politician last week. “Chuck Schumer is in for a rude awakening if he thinks I’m taking orders from him.”

Osborne’s allies also carried that message to their supporters, arguing that if elected he would become an independent voice in the Senate.

“When he gets to Congress, he won’t be dining with Democrats. He won’t dine with Republicans,” actor Paul Scheer told a group of Osbourne supporters at a rally in Omaha on Sunday. “He will have lunch all alone.”

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While Osborne has sought to distance himself from Democrats, the independent candidate has faced criticism that he is still not conservative enough to represent deep-red Nebraska.

“I think (voters) see that he says he’s an independent, but in his own words, he also has a lot of things that he supports that conservatives in Nebraska don’t support,” Fischer said. Washington Examiner. “We tried to talk about it to define him (in our advertising) so people would understand that he was just trying to defraud Nebraska.”

“We are a red state. Democrats are not winning statewide,” she added. “That’s why he’s running as an independent candidate.”

However, Osborne has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump on some key issues to position himself as a midterm candidate. In one ad that aired across the state, Osborne supported the former president on issues such as the border and foreign policy, saying, “They tried to stop Trump just like they’re trying to stop me.”

But that may not be enough to convince voters, especially since, as Fischer noted, Trump endorsed her over Osborne.

Fisher compared Osborne’s strategy to that of some vulnerable democrats who have tied themselves to Trump in recent ads in states where the former president may be leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the polls.

“Whether it’s (Sen. Tammy) Baldwin or (Sen.) Bob Casey (and) Sherrod Brown, they’re all trying to associate themselves with President Trump. The people of Nebraska will not be fooled,” Fisher said. “My opponent has an ad saying he supports Trump on the border bill. President Trump opposed this border bill, and Dan Osborne attacks me because I was against it.”

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“Yes, whoever he advised is not good,” Fischer added.

Recent opinion polls show a tight race between the two candidates, with polls taken over the last month alternating which campaign has the upper hand. National averages show Fisher leading Osborne by 3 points, giving the Republican incumbent some breathing room in the last few days of the 2024 cycle.